USD\/CHF paritesi Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,7930 civar\u0131na gerileyerek 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131nda, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir \u201cbar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d \u00e7er\u00e7evesine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulamas\u0131 etkili oldu. Resmi imza t\u00f6reninin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50-%3,75 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 ve \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti: CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %64 g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta %69 seviyesindeydi. Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netiminde y\u00f6nlendirme ve bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kacak mesajlar\u0131n belirleyici olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, Avrupa\u2019da tercih edilen g\u00fcvenli liman olarak \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,7930\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyelere h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, bu e\u011filimin ivme kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik tansiyonun belirgin \u015fekilde yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte, paritede sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131; on y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcre \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere daha yak\u0131n hedeflerle de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu anla\u015fman\u0131n en belirgin etkisi enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde; bu da enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak Fed\u2019in yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131, \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle erken i\u015flemlerde %4 gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu tablo, 2015\u2019teki JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131ndaki fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu dezenflasyonist etki ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fundan, dolar bazl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131k kilit g\u00fcndem maddesi; ayr\u0131ca yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh i\u00e7in ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131nav niteli\u011finde. Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131lsa da, son ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisinin %3,6 ile hedefin inatla \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 Fed\u2019in tamamen g\u00fcvercin bir \u00e7izgiye ge\u00e7mesini engelliyor. VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksinin iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 12,5\u2019e gerilemesiyle, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli opsiyonlar kullanarak USD\/CHF\u2019de straddle stratejileri kurulabilir; Warsh\u2019\u00fcn bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda paritede her iki y\u00f6nde sert bir harekete pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %1,25\u2019lik faizinin belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, dolar\u0131n franka kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu olumsuz tepki, piyasan\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada basit faiz farklar\u0131ndan ziyade jeopoliti\u011fe odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bununla birlikte, y\u00fcksek getiri fark\u0131 bir tampon olu\u015fturuyor; bu da prim toplamak amac\u0131yla USD\/CHF\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131labilece\u011fine ve olas\u0131 bir dolar toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir stratejiyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz bar\u0131\u015f r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 dolar\u0131 vurdu: USD\/CHF 0,7930\u2019a inerek 5 Haziran\u2019dan beri dip g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de; petrol %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle dezenflasyon sinyali verirken, opsiyonlarla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket beklentisi art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}