EUR\/USD, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve euroyu dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda desteklemesiyle, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1610 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Washington ve Tahran, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmay\u0131 duyurdu. Buna g\u00f6re ABD, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131racak ve anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan su yolu yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politika karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; politika faizinin %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar, ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki Fed\u2019in y\u00f6nlendirmesine ili\u015fkin sinyaller i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyecek; \u015fahin mesajlar dolar\u0131n destek bulmas\u0131na ve parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise ECB, Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek ge\u00e7en hafta temel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; bu, Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f olurken, yedi toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi Joachim Nagel, \u015fokun s\u00fcrmesi halinde bankan\u0131n temmuzda faizleri yeniden art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte, EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara odaklanmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6nemli bir tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini azalt\u0131yor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) do\u011frulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, anla\u015fma enerji enflasyonu endi\u015felerinin \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor ve bu da euroyu ilave olarak destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn en uygun \u015fekilde opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden ifade edilebilece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle 1,1700 ve 1,1750 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip euro call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131. Bu strateji, paritenin son Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyeleri yeniden hedefledi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmemizi sa\u011flar. 2025\u2019e ait tarihsel veriler, paritenin 1,1800 \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda anlaml\u0131 bir toparlanma alan\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, piyasa volatilitesinde gerileme beklentisini de g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasa korkusunun \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi olan VIX endeksi son iki g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 geriledi ve bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle risk priminden sert etkilenen petrol ve enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde, k\u0131sa straddle gibi stratejilerle volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryonun ba\u015fl\u0131ca riski, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131. ECB, Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olsa da, Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019ndan gelebilecek beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde agresif a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, dolar taraf\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yaratabilir; bu nedenle s\u00f6z konusu etkinlik etraf\u0131nda pozisyonlar\u0131n dikkatle y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de uzla\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131: EUR\/USD 1,1610\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Odak Fed karar\u0131 ve Warsh mesajlar\u0131. ECB \u015fahinle\u015fti. Strateji: 1,17\u20131,1750 call; VIX d\u00fc\u015ferken straddle. Risk: agresif Fed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48788\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}