Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sonland\u0131racak bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 duyurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde haftal\u0131k zirveye y\u00fckseldi; anla\u015fman\u0131n cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi bekleniyor. ABD, anla\u015fma imzaland\u0131ktan sonra \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlara ba\u011fl\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ran ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, \u00fc\u00e7 ko\u015fula ba\u011fl\u0131 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir m\u00fczakere s\u00fcreci olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131: ablukaya son verilmesi, sava\u015f hali ile askeri operasyonlar\u0131n bitirilmesi ve dondurulmu\u015f fonlar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131. Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima edilen olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %64\u2019te g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta %69 seviyesindeydi. <\/p>\n
Grafikte spot alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI ise 42 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.415 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 4.685 dolar civar\u0131nda ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.762 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde. Destek, alt Bollinger band\u0131na denk gelen 4.142 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015faret ediliyor; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6nceki dip seviyelere do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kap\u0131 aralayabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015fi, yeni bir bo\u011fa trendinden ziyade de\u011fi\u015fen faiz beklentilerine verilen ge\u00e7ici bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n temel etkisi jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131d\u0131r; bu da tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n gibi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na olan talebi zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Diren\u00e7lere do\u011fru bu ralli, bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat niteli\u011finde olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren CME FedWatch arac\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor; ancak bu ikincil bir fakt\u00f6r. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan May\u0131s 2026 ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) h\u00e2len y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek %3,1 seviyesinde geldi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesini bekliyoruz; bu da uzun vadede dezenflasyonist olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum, alt\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak cazibesini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak zay\u0131f konumunu koruyor. Mevcut hareketi, 4.415 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 muhtemel d\u00fczeltme ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Temel momentum g\u00f6stergeleri, buradan itibaren kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi desteklemiyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 4 ila 6 hafta i\u00e7inde vadesi dolacak sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tam etkisini fiyatlamas\u0131yla olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken, potansiyel zarar\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u201c\u0130yi haber\u201d ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle ima edilen volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olabilir; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru olmaya devam etti\u011fini kabul etmek gerekir. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 1\u00c7 raporu, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerine 290 ton daha ekledi\u011fini ve son y\u0131llardaki e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu istikrarl\u0131 talep, muhtemelen fiyatlara bir taban olu\u015fturacak ve sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131 alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1991\u2019de Birinci K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan, istikrar\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesiyle alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 aylar boyunca kademeli olarak gerilemi\u015fti. Benzer bir desenin olu\u015fabilece\u011fini; bu ilk rallinin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenerek orta vadeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine yerini b\u0131rakabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131: XAU\/USD haftal\u0131k zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak jeopolitik riskin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve zay\u0131f teknikler ralliyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. 4.415\/4.685 diren\u00e7, 4.142 destek; put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47752,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48787\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}