Hindistan rupisi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (MoU) nihai hale getirdi\u011finin teyit edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan gerilemesiyle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; USD\/INR paritesi 94,60 civar\u0131na indi. Hindistan\u2019da sabah i\u015flemlerinde MCX Ham Petrol 18 Haziran vadeli kontrat\u0131 %5,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.630\u2019a gerileyerek son yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olarak, Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 MoU\u2019nun 19 Haziran\u2019da \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de imzalanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019dan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda askeri operasyonlar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131na ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fe ili\u015fkin eri\u015fim ko\u015fullar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikliklere at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Portf\u00f6y ak\u0131mlar\u0131 bask\u0131 unsuru olmaya devam etti ancak h\u0131z kesti: Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), Haziran ay\u0131nda \u015fu ana kadar 46.430,42 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131; 10 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 4.643 crore rupi olurken, son iki seansta ortalama 1.534,63 crore rupi seviyesine geriledi. Veri taraf\u0131nda May\u0131s WPI enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9,68 ile %9,1 beklentisinin ve Nisan\u2019daki %8,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geldi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 95,33\u2019\u00fcn daha da alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; RSI 42 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, diren\u00e7 95,33 ard\u0131ndan 96,00; destek ise 94,46 ve devam\u0131nda 94,03 olarak i\u015faretlendi.<\/p>\n
Rupinin 94,60 seviyesine h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. USD\/INR put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak se\u00e7enekleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; ilk hedefler yak\u0131n dip seviyeler olan 94,46 ve ard\u0131ndan 94,03 olarak belirlenebilir. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, bu yeni a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hareket, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fle temel olarak da destekleniyor; bu, Hindistan ekonomisi i\u00e7in belirgin bir pozitif. Hindistan ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, fiyatlarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00fclkenin ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 keskin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131nda her 10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k dengesini yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 iyile\u015ftirerek yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015fini destekler.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek WPI enflasyon verisi art\u0131k bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir risk. Daha ucuz petrol kaynakl\u0131 dezenflasyonist \u015fok, geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bu verinin etkisini muhtemelen g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakacak ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck enflasyon beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Bu da Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak daha istikrarl\u0131 bir politika zemini yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetlerinin bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Hindistan hisse senetlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli beklemeliyiz. FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte bu olumlu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2014-16 d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen giri\u015flere benzer \u015fekilde, kuvvetli al\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir. Bunu Nifty ve Sensex vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Petrol cephesinde ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, ge\u00e7ici bir dalgalanmadan ziyade k\u00fcresel arzda yap\u0131sal bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Yak\u0131n vadede ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. MCX\u2019te 7.630 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut fiyat\u0131n, 19 Haziran\u2019daki imza sonras\u0131nda \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel piyasaya resmen yeniden girmesiyle birlikte ilave bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz geli\u015fme: ABD-\u0130ran MoU ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz eri\u015fimi petrol\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6kertti, rupi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; USD\/INR 94,60. FII sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Teknikte a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trend: 94,46-94,03 hedef; 95,33 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}