Avustralya dolar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; AUD\/USD, \u00f6nceki seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck gerilemelerin ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 artarak 0,7080 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasalar, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131 ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, A\u011fustos\u2019ta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini de azaltt\u0131; odak 24 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi. RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon hedefi %2\u20133 band\u0131 olurken, AUD i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f belirleyiciler aras\u0131nda faiz farklar\u0131, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi ve \u00c7in ekonomisinin ko\u015fullar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Demir cevheri, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan merkez\u00ee konumunu koruyor; 2021 verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolarla Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi olarak g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmek \u00fczere anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin azalmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131; Washington ve Tahran anla\u015fman\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD, anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimaline i\u015faret eden ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %27\u2019ye geriledi; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %40 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ve paritenin 0,7080 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltarak Aussie\u2019ye k\u0131sa vadede destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Hareket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla da peki\u015fiyor; Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ihtimali piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca %27.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu AUD g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. RBA\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131nki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekleniyor ve son yurti\u00e7i veriler daha agresif bir duru\u015fu destekleyecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil. Bundan sonra t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler, RBA\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek olan ve 24 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen kritik May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisinde olacak.<\/p>\n
\u0130lave bir temkin unsuru olarak, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son verilerin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti\u011fini not ediyoruz; May\u0131s sanayi \u00fcretimi %4,9 artarak %5,2\u2019lik beklentinin bir miktar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00c7in, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, olas\u0131 bir yava\u015flama Avustralya ihracat\u0131na talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve Aussie\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fi bask\u0131layabilir. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korusa da, \u00c7in talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ilgin\u00e7 bir kurgu olu\u015fturuyor. Jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131, z\u0131mni volatiliteyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek opsiyonlar\u0131 ucuzlat\u0131yor olabilir. Bu ortam\u0131n, T\u00dcFE verisine do\u011fru AUD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle, enflasyon verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesi halinde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in vadesi Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131 olan put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Alternatif olarak, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in 0,7200 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satarak prim toplamak etkili bir strateji olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00f6z konusu diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bar\u0131\u015f haberleriyle dolar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcnce Aussie ata\u011fa kalkt\u0131: AUD\/USD %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla 0,7080\u2019e. RBA\u2019dan ad\u0131m beklenmiyor; g\u00f6zler 24 Haziran T\u00dcFE\u2019de. \u00c7in ve demir cevheri risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48773\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}