Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcl sanayi endeksi, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki genel faaliyetin bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak, Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %1,3 y\u00fckseldi. Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki -%0,2\u2019lik okumayla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan hizmet \u00fcretiminde bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazdaki bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerin geni\u015f bir yelpazesindeki performans\u0131 izleyen endeks kapsam\u0131ndaki alanlarda ivmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Veri, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda yurt i\u00e7i talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131nda hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %1,3\u2019l\u00fck geni\u015fleme, sa\u011flam bir yurt i\u00e7i toparlanman\u0131n ilk net i\u015faretiydi. Bu e\u011filim daha g\u00fcncel verilerle de teyit edildi: May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,7\u2019ye ula\u015farak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 onuncu ay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, hedef \u00fczerinde enflasyonun bu kadar uzun s\u00fcrmesi ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle birle\u015fmesi, politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 giderek daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, yakla\u015fan Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 kadar erken bir tarihte ba\u015flayabilir. Resmi s\u00f6ylemin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda daha \u015fahin bir tona kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmenin (forward guidance) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. \u0130leti\u015fimdeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir sinyaldir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Japon faiz oranlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc en do\u011frudan yans\u0131tman\u0131n yolunun Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131ndan daha agresif bir politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla fayda sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki kronik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da tersine \u00e7evirmesi beklenir. Bu nedenle, JPY\u2019nin ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Bu, faiz farklar\u0131 daral\u0131rken para biriminde olas\u0131 bir ralliye, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle (defined-risk) kat\u0131lmaya imk\u00e2n veren bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, ekonomi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, daha y\u00fcksek faizler Japon hisseleri i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Nikkei 225 endeksi tarihsel olarak artan yurt i\u00e7i bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bu riski azaltmak i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Nikkei 225 endeksi \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Japonya\u2019da hizmet endeksi Nisan\u2019da %1,3 artt\u0131; toparlanma ve %2,7 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon BoJ\u2019u Temmuz\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya itebilir. Strateji: JGB short, USD\/JPY call, Nikkei put hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}