AUD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 113,35 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, risk duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini destekledi. CNN, anla\u015fman\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fini bildirirken, Donald Trump ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve anla\u015fma imzaland\u0131ktan sonra H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Odak \u015fimdi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc RBA ve BoJ\u2019dan gelecek politika kararlar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131yla, bu y\u0131l ilk kez politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Japonya\u2019da ise Reuters anketi, ekonomistlerin BoJ\u2019un Haziran\u2019daki %1,0\u2019lik hamlenin ard\u0131ndan 4\u00c7\u2019de faizi %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesini bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu, 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olacak. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7apraz, 111,90 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 112,25 civar\u0131ndaki alt Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7, 113,60 civar\u0131ndaki Bollinger orta \u00e7izgisi ile 114,92 civar\u0131ndaki \u00fcst bantta; RSI ise 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY \u00e7apraz\u0131n\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerle risk al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran ge\u00e7ici bir destek buldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana hareketlerin, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131 patikalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. \u0130zlenecek kilit geli\u015fmeler, bu Sal\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak faiz kararlar\u0131.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara vermesini bekliyoruz; bu da Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye bir tavan olu\u015fturabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Avustralya\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,5\u2019e gerileyerek tahminlerin bir miktar alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi destekliyor. Bu veriler, merkez bankas\u0131na mevcut duru\u015fu koruyup ekonomiyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, BoJ\u2019un politika faizini %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltmesinin geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklenmesiyle, Japon yeni taraf\u0131nda belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fimi, Japonya\u2019daki \u201cshunto\u201d bahar \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ortalama %5,5\u2019lik maa\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131na dayan\u0131yor; bu, son 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n d\u00f6nemin en y\u00fcksek seviyesi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, BoJ\u2019a para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme konusunda ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel ayr\u0131\u015fma \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 113,60\u2013114,90 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaratmas\u0131 beklenen oynakl\u0131kta riski y\u00f6netirken olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla AUD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, s\u00fcrpriz a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan kaynaklanabilecek s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske maruz kalmadan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen senaryosuna pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Stratejimizin teyidi, paritenin 112,25 civar\u0131ndaki ilk destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla gelecektir. 111,90 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na net bir ge\u00e7i\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fczeltmenin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, BoJ\u2019un gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ge\u00e7ti\u011fi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeleriyle de tarihsel olarak uyumludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik bar\u0131\u015f r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 AUD\/JPY\u2019yi 113,35\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; fakat as\u0131l fiyatlama Sal\u0131. RBA\u2019n\u0131n pas ge\u00e7mesi, BoJ\u2019un s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; 113,60\u2013114,90 sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131. Put opsiyonlar\u0131, 112,25\/111,90 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fczeltmeyi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48769\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}