Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sonland\u0131rma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Asya i\u015flemlerinde toparlanarak haftal\u0131k zirveye y\u00fckseldi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi beklenirken, ABD \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve mutabakat imzaland\u0131ktan sonra H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakerelerin \u00fc\u00e7 taahh\u00fcde ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: ablukaya son verilmesi, askeri operasyonlar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dondurulmu\u015f fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri, CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %64 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla de\u011fi\u015fti; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta %69 seviyesindeydi. Grafikte XAU\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI 42 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 $4.415 yak\u0131n\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan $4.685 ve $4.762 seviyelerinde; destek ise $4.142 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yeni bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131, alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131 normalde alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz olsa da, fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinin nedeni bu anla\u015fman\u0131n petrol fiyat\u0131 \u015foku olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi. Bu da enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltarak Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n tepki verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 haberinin ard\u0131ndan WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu, \u00f6zellikle May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE raporunda y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalarak %2,8\u2019e gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan, enflasyonun so\u011fuyaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak Aral\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve bu durum getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir destek sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu temel destekleyici unsura ra\u011fmen, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde kalmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in mevcut ralliyi temkinli de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da geni\u015f resimde trendin h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bollinger orta band\u0131na yak\u0131n $4.415 b\u00f6lgesindeki direnci, olas\u0131 bir \u201crallide sat\u0131\u015f\u201d f\u0131rsat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken kritik seviye olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, $4.415 direncinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak prim toplaman\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Alternatif olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6renler i\u00e7in, $4.142 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak daha temkinli bir hamle olabilir. CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ) de \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerileyerek, piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2015\u2019teki JCPOA n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6neminde benzer bir yap\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na verilen ilk tepki, zamanla bask\u0131n makroekonomik trend taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle bunu yeni bir bo\u011fa ko\u015fusu olarak de\u011fil, daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011finde bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Stratejimiz, ralli yukar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik dirence yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a ivmesini kaybetmesini izlemek y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015fen jeopolitik risk ve petrol \u015foku endi\u015fesinin azalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 Asya\u2019da y\u00fckseldi. Ancak teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f: 4.415 diren\u00e7, 4.142 destek; ralli sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48768\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}