ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda izleyen g\u00f6sterge, g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na talebin azalmas\u0131yla Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 99,50 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmek \u00fczere anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberler, enflasyon ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri azaltarak Greenback \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Washington ve Tahran, anla\u015fman\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fini Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, anla\u015fma imzaland\u0131ktan sonra ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken; \u0130ran Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi ate\u015fkesi teyit etti ve mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki taahh\u00fctler yerine getirildikten sonra nihai g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ayr\u0131ca deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal sona erdirilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %27 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %40 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,50\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar\u0131n daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en ay 104\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden ya\u015fanan bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f belirgin; bu nedenle dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019ler \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Avrupa para birimlerinin orant\u0131s\u0131z bi\u00e7imde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda da uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim, sabit getirili piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r. Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %27\u2019ye gerilemesiyle, Hazine tahvili getirilerinin May\u0131s\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen son zirvelerden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Artan tahvil fiyatlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyerek ham petrol i\u00e7in net bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali \u00fcretiyor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l boyunca biriken risk priminde tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesiyle beklenen ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften getiri elde etmek i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131yor ve b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f volatiliteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor; VIX ge\u00e7en yazdan bu yana ilk kez 12\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu \u201crisk-on\u201d ortam\u0131, \u00f6zellikle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentilerinden fayda sa\u011flayan teknoloji ve t\u00fcketim sekt\u00f6rleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a destekleyici. Bu nedenle S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 endekslerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131yor, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeni zirveleri hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Avrupal\u0131 \u00fclkelerin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131, \u00f6nemli bir ihracat pazar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flarken k\u0131ta i\u00e7in enerji maliyeti bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da hafifletiyor. Haberin ard\u0131ndan Almanya\u2019n\u0131n DAX endeksinin %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesi, imalat ihracat\u0131na olan y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bunu bir trend ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Avrupa hisse endekslerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na olan maruziyetimizi art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz ate\u015fkes dolar\u0131 vurdu! DXY 99,50\u2019ye inerken Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %27\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Tahviller g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, petrol 75$ alt\u0131. Risk-on: S&P\/Nasdaq, DAX\u2019ta y\u00fckseli\u015f. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48767"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48767\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}