G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n teyidinin ard\u0131ndan enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle Asya i\u015flemlerinde %4 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 70,80 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fczerg\u00e2h k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor; petrol sat\u0131\u015f yedi. WTI %4,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 78,85 dolara gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7 aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00d6nceki aylarda daha y\u00fcksek seyreden petrol, k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 beslemi\u015f; bu da piyasalarda merkez bankalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvercin fiyatlaman\u0131n t\u00f6rp\u00fclenmesine ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131n cazibesinin azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik olarak XAG\/USD, 71,70 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ra\u011fmen k\u0131sa vadede hafif ay\u0131 e\u011filimini korudu. RSI, 40,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndan sonra yeniden 40,00\u201360,00 band\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc; 60,00 \u00fczeri bir hareket daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali olarak izleniyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 78,83 ve 80,00 dolar olarak belirtilirken, destek 61,01 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli belirleyicileri aras\u0131nda USD hareketleri, faiz beklentileri, ETF talebi, madencilik arz\u0131 ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra elektronik ve g\u00fcne\u015f gibi alanlardaki end\u00fcstriyel kullan\u0131m ile Alt\u0131n\/G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rasyosundan gelen sinyaller yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasada belirgin bir kayma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun sonucunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u015fu an de\u011ferlendirmemiz gereken en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r. Bu geli\u015fme, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara ili\u015fkin enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc temelden de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu. Enflasyon endi\u015felerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu da mevcut ortamda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha cazip bir varl\u0131k haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 2020\u2019deki talep \u015fokundan bu yana en sert hareketlerden biri ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019e so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesi de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 geciktirdi\u011fi ve de\u011ferli metallerin g\u00f6reli olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemin \u00f6ncesine denk gelen 2014-2015 petrol fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir ralliye y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak gerekiyor. Mevcut 71,70 dolar civar\u0131ndaki direncin hemen \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve 78\u201380 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru bir hareketin hedeflenmesi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu strateji, tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir risk profiliyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn fiyat\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ve zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir miktar s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ad\u0131na bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131labilir. Alternatif olarak, 65 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z bir ralliye kar\u015f\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge edebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda olacak. Faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme, bu yeni g\u00fcvercin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn teyidi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak. Fed metni daha az agresif bir politika patikas\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131nda pozisyonlara ek yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son dakika: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 petrol\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6kertti; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f Asya\u2019da %4 art\u0131\u015fla 70,80\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 71,70 alt\u0131nda ay\u0131, hedef 78\u201380.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48766\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}