Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde haftal\u0131k zirveye t\u0131rmand\u0131. ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi beklenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirecek bir anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n yeniden toparland\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, anla\u015fma imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak \u0130ngiltere, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Kazem Garibabadi, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakerelerin \u00fc\u00e7 ABD taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sava\u015f halinin ve askeri operasyonlar\u0131n sona erdirilmesi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dondurulmu\u015f fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %69\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %64\u2019e indirdi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, 42 civar\u0131ndaki RSI da orta \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda seyretti. Diren\u00e7 $4.415 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan $4.685 ve $4.762 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken; destek $4.142 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki son anla\u015fmay\u0131 kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak alt\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Piyasa, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in art\u0131k %64\u2019e gerileyen Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor; bu duru\u015f, alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 destekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n jeopolitik riskteki temel azalma, zaman i\u00e7inde g\u00fcvenli liman talebi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu yumu\u015fama enerji piyasalar\u0131nda \u015fimdiden hissediliyor ve bu durum enflasyon beklentilerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n potansiyel olarak kald\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7ekildi. Tarihsel olarak, 2015\u2019teki ilk JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131na benzer Orta Do\u011fu istikrar\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme, enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor; bu da ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,7\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fuma g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi tabloyla uyumlu. Enerjiden gelen enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131nca, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara verme alan\u0131 geni\u015fliyor. Bu zemin, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir senaryo yarat\u0131yor: bir tarafta zay\u0131f teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, di\u011fer tarafta daha g\u00fcvercin bir Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullanman\u0131n en ihtiyatl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Teknik grafik, $4.415 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik sakinli\u011fin kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, prim toplamak i\u00e7in $4.762\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip call spread satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131n gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in debit call spread al\u0131m\u0131 taktiksel bir hamle olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, $4.450 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonunu al\u0131p e\u015f anl\u0131 olarak daha ileri vadeli bir vade i\u00e7in $4.650 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonunu satmak, kontroll\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yolunu sunar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m hem potansiyel k\u00e2r\u0131 hem de zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar; mevcut ortam i\u00e7in uygundur.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fman\u0131n akamete u\u011frayabilece\u011fine dair sinyalleri de izlemek gerekiyor; zira \u0130ran, mutabakat\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli ko\u015fullar \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) 16\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek piyasa endi\u015fesinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; ancak olumsuz man\u015fetler h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe neden olabilir. Bu ge\u00e7ici sakinlik, alt\u0131n\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 veya \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir \u015fekilde iki y\u00f6nden birine hareket etmesi halinde fayda sa\u011flayabilecek i\u015flemleri kurgulamak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz ralli: ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015femesi beklentisiyle XAU\/USD haftal\u0131k zirvede. Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %64\u2019e indi. Teknik zay\u0131f; $4.415 diren\u00e7, $4.142 destek. Opsiyonla risk y\u00f6netimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47774,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48764\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}