USD\/JPY, Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 160,20 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Dolar, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 sonland\u0131rmaya, ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. Avrupa h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri de olas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015femesine i\u015faret etti; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemleri kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ancak piyasalar, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n nihai bir n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamamas\u0131 halinde Tahran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Odak \u015fimdi merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenirken, yeni ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019un para politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l y\u00f6nlendirece\u011fi de yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Japonya\u2019da ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) g\u00f6sterge faizi 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,0\u2019a bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131 neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Reuters anketi, ekonomistlerin faizlerin 4. \u00e7eyrekte %1,25\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, bu durum sonraki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n muhtemel zamanlamas\u0131 ve h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesinin 160,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek bir seviye olup paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu haftan\u0131n kilit g\u00fcndemleri yar\u0131nki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed karar\u0131. \u015eu anki sakin piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n, bu \u00f6nemli risk ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 devreye girmeden \u00f6nce ge\u00e7ici olmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltmesi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bankan\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesinde olacak. %1,25\u2019e giden patikan\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir sinyal, \u00f6zellikle de spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2024\u2019ten bu yana yene kar\u015f\u0131 rekor net k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, belirgin bir harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. Sert bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, bu k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131labilir ve JPY\u2019de ralliye zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in bekle-g\u00f6r konumunu korumas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yeni destekleyen net bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Japonya lehine a\u00e7\u0131lan faiz fark\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019nin gerilemesini beklemek i\u00e7in temel bir gerek\u00e7e. Dolar\u0131 daha da zay\u0131flatabilecek olas\u0131 g\u00fcvercin sinyaller a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n tonunu yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda s\u0131kl\u0131kla s\u0131\u00e7rama yapan JYVIX endeksinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, ima edilen volatilite y\u00fcksek; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131, bu volatilitenin maliyetini y\u00f6netmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken riski de tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bildirilen \u00e7er\u00e7eve, daha zay\u0131f bir dolar tezini de destekliyor. Jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenli liman olarak dolara olan talebi genellikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Anla\u015fma hen\u00fcz nihai olmasa da, ilerleme ABD para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha az destekleyici bir ortam\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160,20\u2019de: \u0130ran\u2019la bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken Trump tehdidi temkini art\u0131r\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019dan %1,0 fiyatland\u0131, y\u00f6nlendirme kritik. Fed sabit. Rekor JPY k\u0131sa pozisyonu squeeze riski; put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}