\u0130ngiltere, Fransa, Almanya ve \u0130talya, Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmeye y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde Tahran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. D\u00f6rt \u00fclke ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah edinmemesi gerekti\u011fini belirterek bu hedef do\u011frultusunda ABD, \u0130ran ve UAEA ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Mehr haber ajans\u0131, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda imzalanan 14 maddelik bir mutabakat zapt\u0131na at\u0131fla, m\u00fczakereler ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait dondurulmu\u015f 12 milyar dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Piyasa tepkisi h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda West Texas Intermediate (WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %3,88 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 79,70 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin haber, ham petrol i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali. WTI\u2019\u0131n 79,70 dolara h\u0131zl\u0131 gerilemesi, piyasada yeni arz\u0131n piyasay\u0131 \u201cbo\u011faca\u011f\u0131\u201d endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bunu, kayda de\u011fer bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat d\u00fczeltmesinin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz; bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,2 milyon varilden fazla ekleyebilir. Bu yeni arz, OPEC+ cephesinde May\u0131s 2026 verilerinin grubun \u00fcretim kesintilerine uyumu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn piyasaya giri\u015fi, kartelin fiyat y\u00f6netme kapasitesi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay vadeli WTI ve Brent vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken potansiyel zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl kontratlar\u0131 i\u00e7in 75 ve 70 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna benzer jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, petrol volatilitesinde de sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz. G\u00f6rece sakin bir seviye olan 35 civar\u0131nda seyreden CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 45\u2019in \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir \u00f6rne\u011fi 2015\u2019teki KOEP (JCPOA) n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. \u0130lk mutabakat\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar \u0130ran varillerinin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc beklerken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde %30\u2019dan fazla gerilemi\u015fti. Tarih, bu ilk fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir hareket de\u011fil, daha uzun vadeli bir trendin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haber ayn\u0131 zamanda Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki gerilimin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da deniz ticareti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tankerlere uygulanan risk priminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, navlun sigortas\u0131 maliyetlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu kapsamda, daha g\u00fcvenli ve daha ucuz ge\u00e7i\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayabilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck tanker \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 inceliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmedi\u011fini ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 bozulabilece\u011fini unutmamak gerekiyor. Teyit i\u00e7in UAEA ve ilgili t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerden gelecek resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. M\u00fczakerelerde gecikme ya da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k i\u015fareti, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde sert sat\u0131\u015f: ABD-\u0130ran yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 \u0130ran varillerini geri getirebilir. Avrupa yapt\u0131r\u0131m kald\u0131rmaya a\u00e7\u0131k. 12 milyar $ serbest kal\u0131yor iddias\u0131. WTI %3,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 79,7$. Volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48762\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}