USD\/CAD, iki seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilerek Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3970 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n genel bazda zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte, yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ay s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirecek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tamamen yeniden a\u00e7acak kapsaml\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan piyasalarda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde azalmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130lave bask\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131ndan geldi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol, The New York Times\u2019\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131n Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti al\u0131nmadan\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktarmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 79,60 dolara geriledi. USD\/CAD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir; zira emtiaya duyarl\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131, petrol d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde r\u00fczg\u00e2rla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. Kanada, ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol tedarik\u00e7isi konumunda oldu\u011fundan CAD fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na hassast\u0131r. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede Bloomberg, Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif\u2019in L\u00fcbnan d\u00e2hil t\u00fcm cephelerde askeri operasyonlar\u0131n derhal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak sona erdi\u011fini teyit etti\u011fini bildirirken; \u0130ran Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi de ate\u015fkesi do\u011frulad\u0131 ve nihai g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin, ABD\u2019nin mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirmesine ve deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal sonlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n keskin bi\u00e7imde azalmas\u0131yla birlikte, hem WTI ham petrol hem de d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, tek bir y\u00f6ne pozisyon almak yerine k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 konumlan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in bu artan belirsizlikten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesi karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo sunuyor; zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle darbe alan Kanada Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan dengeleniyor. Tarihsel olarak USD\/CAD ile WTI fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyon bulunur; \u00e7o\u011fu zaman -0,6 ile -0,8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyreder; yani petrol\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi genellikle USD\/CAD\u2019i yukar\u0131 iter. Bu temel bask\u0131 paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve petrol piyasas\u0131 yeni bir taban bulana kadar USD\/CAD\u2019i net y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler i\u00e7in zay\u0131f bir aday h\u00e2line getirebilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Daha net f\u0131rsat\u0131 ham petrol\u00fcn kendisinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in pozisyon almada g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tek g\u00fcnde %4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kayda de\u011fer; b\u00fcy\u00fck OPEC+ arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen tepkilerle benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131 da fiyatlar\u0131n daha da gerileyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara vadeli WTI sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumuya (ay\u0131 e\u011filimine) kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6nemli bir tema; g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi aniden ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY), b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik gerilim azalmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde sermayenin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte daha riskli varl\u0131klara d\u00f6nmesiyle, d\u00f6ng\u00fc zirvelerinden kal\u0131c\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler sergiledi\u011fi daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu da, emtiaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 olmayan para birimlerine (Euro veya \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi) kar\u015f\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alman\u0131n, \u00e7eli\u015fkili dinamiklere sahip USD\/CAD\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha yal\u0131n bir i\u015flem fikri sunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bar\u0131\u015f man\u015feti piyasay\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi: USD\/CAD 1,3970\u2019e \u00e7ekilirken riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f s\u00f6nd\u00fc. WTI %4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, CAD bask\u0131land\u0131. Oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131; straddle\/strangle, WTI put ve DXY short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48761\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}