Rightmove\u2019un Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Konut Fiyat Endeksi, haziran ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %0,5 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %0,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Veriler, yaz d\u00f6nemine girerken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda fiyatlama ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar daha zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Haziran verisi, bir \u00f6nceki de\u011fere k\u0131yasla 0,2 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bir bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Rightmove\u2019un g\u00f6stergesi negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek, y\u0131ll\u0131k konut fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn -%0,5\u2019e kadar derinle\u015fmesi, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teyit ediyor ve bunun harcamalarda yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bunu, ekonomik r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n net bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) pozisyonunu da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; Banka, h\u00e2len yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,6 seviyesinde seyreden enflasyonu y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in faizi %4,75\u2019te sabit tutuyor. Konut piyasas\u0131ndaki so\u011fuma, sert ini\u015f riskini azaltmak ad\u0131na Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC) \u00fczerinde beklenenden daha erken bir faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bitmeden bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, Sterlin\u2019in k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin faiz indirimine giderken di\u011ferlerinin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, GBP\/USD paritesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden Sterlin\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki-\u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Konut piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan maruz sekt\u00f6rler\u2014konut geli\u015ftiricileri ve bankalar gibi\u2014marj bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. \u0130\u015flem hacimlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck k\u00e2r tahminleri risk alt\u0131na girdi\u011finden, b\u00fcy\u00fck Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k konut geli\u015ftiricilerinin hisselerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2008\u2019deki benzer bir konut yava\u015flamas\u0131, alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde bu sekt\u00f6re \u00f6zg\u00fc hisselerde %15-20\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz hareketlerine ili\u015fkin beklentileri art\u0131k ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z olacak. Getiri e\u011frisinde olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kaymadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131 ve SONIA vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu konut verisi, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin ivme kaybetti\u011fine dair \u015fimdiye kadarki en somut kan\u0131t niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik sinyal: Rightmove endeksi haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k konut fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc %0,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Y\u00fcksek faiz ekonomiyi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken BoE\u2019de erken indirim bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor; Sterlin k\u0131r\u0131lgan, konut\u00e7ular\/bankalarda marj riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}