Rightmove Konut Fiyat Endeksi ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen \u0130ngiltere konut fiyatlar\u0131, haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,5 y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. \u00d6nceki veri -%0,3 seviyesindeydi; bu da daha \u00f6nceki daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7i\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
-%0,3\u2019ten %0,5\u2019e ge\u00e7i\u015f, endeksin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcne g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131k fiyatlama ivmesinde bir toparlanmay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu nedenle haziran verisi, bir \u00f6nceki kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma noktas\u0131na k\u0131yasla iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etse de, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki art\u0131\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de konut fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en sonbahardan bu yana ilk kez y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda pozitife d\u00f6nmesi, piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131. Negatif b\u00f6lgeden pozitif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7i\u015f, dura\u011fanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu istikrar, \u0130ngiltere odakl\u0131 varl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini gerektiren kritik bir sinyal niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, di\u011fer g\u00fcncel g\u00f6stergelerle de uyumlu oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta ONS verileri, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek son iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, ancak bunun daha \u00f6nce beklenenden ge\u00e7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fine de i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca BoE\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 may\u0131s ay\u0131 mortgage (konut kredisi) onaylar\u0131, ayl\u0131k bazda %5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek al\u0131c\u0131 ilgisinin yeniden canland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131 i\u015flemcileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, konut taraf\u0131ndaki bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme BoE\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi yapma aciliyetini azalt\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n, faizlerin yaz boyunca sabit kalma ihtimalini yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlara bak\u0131yoruz; eyl\u00fcl vadeli SONIA vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures) sat\u0131\u015f buna \u00f6rnek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Sterlin i\u00e7in de destekleyici; zira istikrarl\u0131 bir ekonomi, agresif parasal gev\u015feme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. GBP\/USD\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3000 seviyesini test etme potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in paritede k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere hisse piyasas\u0131nda bunun, \u00f6zellikle FTSE 250 endeksindeki yurti\u00e7i odakl\u0131 \u015firketlere fayda sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren b\u00fcy\u00fck konut geli\u015ftiricileri (housebuilder) ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu sekt\u00f6rler, konut piyasas\u0131nda toparlanman\u0131n erken evrelerinde piyasaya \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck eder.<\/p>\n
Konut piyasas\u0131nda sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryo riskinin azalmas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere varl\u0131klar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Bu da gelir yaratmak i\u00e7in opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini daha cazip hale getirir. FTSE 250\u2019de vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; endeksin art\u0131k daha sa\u011flam bir destek taban\u0131na sahip oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de konutlar yeniden nefes ald\u0131: Rightmove Endeksi haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,5 artarak -%0,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi. Enflasyon gerilerken mortgage onaylar\u0131 artt\u0131; Sterlin, SONIA ve FTSE 250 etkilenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48758\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}