Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmek \u00fczere Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi planlanan bir anla\u015fma a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinin ard\u0131ndan Asya i\u015flemlerinde haftal\u0131k zirveye y\u00fckseldi. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, anla\u015fma imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti al\u0131nmaks\u0131z\u0131n\u201d i\u015fletilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran ise 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakerelerin \u00fc\u00e7 ABD taahh\u00fcd\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti: ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmak, sava\u015f halini ve askeri operasyonlar\u0131 sonland\u0131rmak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dondurulmu\u015f fonlar\u0131n\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakmak. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca faiz beklentilerini de revize etti; CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta %69\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %64\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda d\u00fczeltme faz\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI 42\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Diren\u00e7ler 4.415 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.685 dolar seviyelerinde; 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ise 4.762 dolar civar\u0131nda. Destek 4.142 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda bulunuyor ve bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sarkma daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret edebilir. Ayr\u0131 olarak, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekleyerek kay\u0131tlardaki en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Yeni ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f mutabakat\u0131n\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak acil ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltan \u00f6nemli bir jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak piyasan\u0131n ilk olumlu tepkisi, alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015fu anda daha \u00f6nemli bir itici g\u00fcce, yani faiz oranlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor. Anla\u015fma, petrol kaynakl\u0131 bir enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek, bunun sonucunda da gelecekteki Federal Rezerv faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasa art\u0131k Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 %64 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7en hafta %69\u2019du. Son May\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporunda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun \u0131srarla %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hafifletebilecek her unsur \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerindeki bu gerilemenin, alt\u0131n\u0131n mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn temel nedeni oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu, d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u00f6zellikle kritik. 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol \u015foklar\u0131 gibi \u00f6rnekler, bu b\u00f6lgedeki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n do\u011frudan daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerine ve k\u00fcresel enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131, son bir y\u0131lda merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 fiilen s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu temel de\u011fi\u015fime ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131n teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; fiyat h\u00e2l\u00e2 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Daha y\u00fckseli\u015f\u00e7i bir faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli grafik yap\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasan\u0131n bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyalleri sindirmesiyle dalgal\u0131, iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir fiyatlaman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Strateji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.762 dolar civar\u0131ndaki direnci kilit seviye olarak izliyoruz. Bu bariyerin \u00fczerinde call spread satmak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. Bu pozisyon, mevcut ralli ivmesinin s\u00f6nmesi ve grafiklerin i\u015faret etti\u011fi daha uzun vadeli teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden devreye girmesi halinde getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, alt Bollinger band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.142 dolar civar\u0131ndaki destek seviyesini takip edece\u011fiz. Bu fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tekniklerinin temel haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na bask\u0131n geldi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. B\u00f6yle bir durumda, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in put opsiyon alarak pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik viraj: ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fc a\u00e7abilir, petrol\/enflasyon riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini %64\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Teknikte 4.762 diren\u00e7, 4.142 destek izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}