\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), bir sonraki i\u015flem seans\u0131 i\u00e7in Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn USD\/CNY merkezi paritesini 6,8088 olarak belirledi. Bu seviye, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn\u00fcn 6,8109\u2019luk fix\u2019ine k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, Reuters tahmini olan 6,7544\u2019\u00fcn ise \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Fixing, onshore i\u015flemler i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir referans noktas\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 (kur istikrar\u0131 dahil) koruma; ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleme ve piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile geli\u015fimi gibi finansal reformlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme hedefleriyle uyumlu daha geni\u015f g\u00f6rev alan\u0131 i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
PBoC, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti devletine ait oldu\u011fundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir kurum de\u011fil; politika y\u00f6n\u00fc, ba\u015fkan yerine Devlet Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilen \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Komitesi Sekreteri taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillendiriliyor. Pan Gongsheng halihaz\u0131rda her iki g\u00f6revi de y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor. Ara\u00e7 seti yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Bor\u00e7 Verme \u0130mkan\u0131 (MLF), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (RRR) kapsarken; kredi ve konut kredisi faizleri ile tasarruf faizlerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131yan temel g\u00f6sterge ise Kredi Ana Faizi (LPR). \u00c7in\u2019de WeBank ve MYbank gibi dijital kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da bulundu\u011fu 19 \u00f6zel banka mevcut ve \u00fclke 2014\u2019te, devletin hakim oldu\u011fu sisteme yurt i\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6zel kredi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n giri\u015fine izin verdi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 bug\u00fcn yuan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek \u015fekilde bir parite belirledi; ancak piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seviye olu\u015fmad\u0131. Bu sinyal, keskin ve kontrols\u00fcz bir ralli yerine kademeli kur de\u011ferlenmesinin tercih edildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, piyasa beklentilerini y\u00f6netmek ve oynakl\u0131ktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak amac\u0131yla at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bilin\u00e7li bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de bu temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor: May\u0131s ay\u0131 ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %1,5 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 ve piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. H\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bir yuan, zaten k\u00fcresel talebin zorlu seyretti\u011fi bir ortamda ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur g\u00fcc\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 durmaya devam etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r %3,45 seviyesinde tuttu\u011fu Kredi Ana Faizi (LPR) gibi ana politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdilik sabit b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcketici enflasyonunun May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,8 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde olmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde PBoC\u2019ye politika gev\u015fetme esnekli\u011fi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu gev\u015feme ihtimali, yak\u0131n vadede yuan\u0131n ne kadar de\u011ferlenebilece\u011fine de bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, USD\/CNY paritesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan getiri sa\u011flayabilecek k\u0131sa vadeli strangle sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131, hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri fiilen s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak opsiyon primi toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde agresif, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar almak ise bu a\u015famada fazla riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kontroll\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, 2018-2019 d\u00f6neminde d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck fix\u2019lerle kurun \u00e7\u0131palanmas\u0131na benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, PBoC\u2019nin her \u015feyin \u00fczerinde istikrara \u00f6ncelik verece\u011fini ve gerekti\u011finde m\u00fcdahale edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00f6viz kurunu y\u00f6nlendirme konusundaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafife almamak gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz hamle: PBoC USD\/CNY fix\u2019ini 6,8088 ile g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ama beklenti kadar de\u011fil; ama\u00e7 kontroll\u00fc de\u011ferlenme ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k. Zay\u0131f ihracat, sabit LPR ve olas\u0131 gev\u015feme kurda tavan koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47810,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}