GBP\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3450 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n hafiflemesi dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. The New York Times, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmay\u0131 bo\u011faz\u0131n \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretsizi\u201d olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan bir d\u00fczenleme olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Bloomberg ise Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif\u2019in, yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131n L\u00fcbnan dahil t\u00fcm cephelerde askeri faaliyetlerin derhal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde durdurulmas\u0131yla sona erece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. \u0130ran Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi ate\u015fkesi teyit ederken, nihai g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bir mutabakat muht\u0131ras\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki taahh\u00fctler yerine getirildikten sonra ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer de deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal ve tamamen sona erdirilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de Nisan ay\u0131nda %0,1\u2019lik daralma \u2014 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana ilk ayl\u0131k gerileme \u2014 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. BoE yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 enflasyonu hedefliyor ve piyasada faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 yayg\u0131n beklenti; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar erken enflasyon ve istihdam verilerini izliyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, 18 Haziran\u2019daki Makerfield ara se\u00e7imi de sterlinin FX\u2019teki genel profiliyle birlikte takip ediliyor: 886 y\u0131l\u0131na uzanan ge\u00e7mi\u015fiyle sterlin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren para birimi; 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re i\u015flemlerin %12\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 630 milyar dolar hacme ula\u015f\u0131yor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca pariteler aras\u0131nda GBP\/USD FX\u2019in %11\u2019ini, GBP\/JPY %3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ve EUR\/GBP %2\u2019sini temsil ediyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin, bildirilen ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan belirgin ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, klasik bir \u201crisk-on\u201d sinyali olup yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131n\u0131 satmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Piyasa korkusunun \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden VIX endeksi %20\u2019den fazla gerileyerek 13\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inerken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lacak olmas\u0131yla Brent petrol de yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, bu sterlin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi Nisan\u2019da %0,1 darald\u0131; ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan May\u0131s enflasyon verisi ise s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde \u0131l\u0131mlayarak %2,1\u2019e geriledi ve BoE \u00fczerindeki aksiyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. \u0130ngiltere ekonomisindeki bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k sterlin i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, BoE\u2019nin bu Per\u015fembe, 18 Haziran\u2019da faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasalar da bunu fiyatl\u0131yor; bu hafta bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %15 seviyesine inmi\u015f durumda. Bu, sadece bir ay \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen %60 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla dramatik bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu, iyile\u015fen k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3500-1,3550 band\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 sundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ima edilen volatiliteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in art\u0131k daha maliyet-etkin bir strateji haline geliyor. Bunu, \u0130ngiltere i\u00e7 dinamiklerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak Makerfield ara se\u00e7imini de izliyoruz; zira net bir sonu\u00e7, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin gelecekteki maliye politikas\u0131na dair yeni bir belirsizlik yaratabilir. Tarihsel olarak, BoE k\u00fcresel \u201crisk-on\u201d d\u00f6neminde duraklama sinyali verdi\u011finde, sterlinin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi. Bu haftaki yurti\u00e7i geli\u015fmelerin, sterlin i\u00e7in ana s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc olarak yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131, GBP\/USD 1,3450\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak \u0130ngiltere\u2019de daralma ve BoE\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015fu y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; 1,3500-1,3550 sat\u0131\u015f b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48755\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}