EUR\/USD, \u00f6nceki seansta ya\u015fanan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,1610 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak \u00fczere bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131nda uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n, L\u00fcbnan\u2019a da at\u0131flarla birlikte, t\u00fcm cephelerde askeri faaliyetlerin derhal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fi bildirildi. \u0130ran Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesini do\u011frularken, mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki taahh\u00fctler yerine getirildikten sonra nihai g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ise deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal ve tamamen sona erdirilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 vard\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m, artan yak\u0131t maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nleyici bir hamle olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. ECB, 2026 man\u015fet enflasyon tahminini %3,0\u2019a ve ayr\u0131 olarak 2027 tahminini %2,3\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; \u00f6nceki projeksiyonlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla %2,6 ve %2,0 seviyesindeydi. Banka ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon beklentilerini 2026 ve 2027 i\u00e7in %2,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; \u00f6nceki tahminler %2,3 ve %2,2 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Para piyasalar\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha fiyatlarken, en olas\u0131 tarih olarak eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; temmuz se\u00e7ene\u011fi ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131yla, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu durum, risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimleri i\u00e7in daha net bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor ve EUR\/USD\u2019nin mevcut 1,1610 seviyesinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f modundan risk alma moduna ge\u00e7erken, bu de\u011fi\u015fim tipik olarak dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n derhal yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etki yaratacakt\u0131r. Bu kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ve bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmu\u015ftu. Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem zirvelerinden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131 dahi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu da k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini hafifleterek dolara olan talebi daha da azaltacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Dolar zay\u0131flarken, Euro ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen temel destekle g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin son faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilen enflasyon tahminleri, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; para piyasalar\u0131 eyl\u00fcle kadar ilave bir art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Daha \u015fahin bir ECB ile g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fc daha az gerekli hale gelen bir dolar aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Euro i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn, varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde ima edilen volatiliteyi de sert bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi beklenir. Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sona ermesini izleyen haftalarda belirsizli\u011fin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131yla VIX gibi volatilite endekslerinin %15-20 gerileyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 do\u011frudan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 daha az cazip hale getirir; d\u00fc\u015fen volatilite nedeniyle opsiyon primlerinin de\u011fer kaybetmesi \u201cvolatilite ezilmesi\u201d (vol crush) olarak bilinir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentimizi korurken ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00fc\u015fen volatiliteyi de hesaba katan yap\u0131lar kurmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin temmuz vadeli 1,1650 call al\u0131n\u0131rken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak temmuz vadeli 1,1800 call sat\u0131labilir. Bu pozisyon paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve gerileyen opsiyon primlerinin etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, bu ortamda prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019de para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin 1,1500 put sat\u0131p korunma amac\u0131yla 1,1400 put almak. Bu yap\u0131 gelir \u00fcretir ve vade sonuna kadar parite k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u00e2r sa\u011flar; hem zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (theta) hem de beklenen volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden do\u011frudan faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131: EUR\/USD 1,1610\u2019da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. ECB\u2019nin 3 y\u0131l sonra faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve \u015fahin enflasyon revizyonlar\u0131 euroyu destekliyor; d\u00fc\u015fen volatilitede spread\/prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}