WTI, ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi, Pazartesi erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 79,40 dolara gerileyerek 79,50 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti ve iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirecek bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na; L\u00fcbnan dahil t\u00fcm cephelerde askeri operasyonlar\u0131n derhal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde durdurulaca\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Trump ayr\u0131ca, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD ve \u0130srail hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra fiilen kapanmas\u0131ndan bu yana kapal\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na izin verdi.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile nihai bir n\u00fckleer mutabakata varamamas\u0131 halinde Tahran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Petrol piyasas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca ABD stok sinyallerini izliyor: Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (API) haftal\u0131k ham petrol stok raporu Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ayr\u0131 olarak, OPEC \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131lda iki kez yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131larda belirleyen 12 \u00fcyeli bir \u00fcretici grubu; OPEC+ ise Rusya dahil OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 on \u00fclkeyi daha kaps\u0131yor. API ve EIA stok sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde genellikle birbirinden %1 sapma i\u00e7inde geliyor; EIA ise daha g\u00fcvenilir kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 haberini dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, WTI ham petrolde anl\u0131k patikan\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131) oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 79,50 dolar civar\u0131nda iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne h\u0131zl\u0131 gerileme, kritik bir petrol \u00fcretim b\u00f6lgesinde tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesinin do\u011frudan sonucu. Stratejimiz, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in en yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f ya da put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ilave fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almak.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n planlanan yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 en \u00f6nemli unsur; zira bu dar bo\u011faz, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7i\u015finden sorumlu. G\u00fcnde milyonlarca varilin yeniden piyasaya d\u00f6nmesi, mevcut talebin absorbe edemeyebilece\u011fi bir arz fazlas\u0131 yaratacak. Bu nedenle, piyasalar\u0131n bu arz \u015fokunu hen\u00fcz tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle, 75 dolar civar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, anla\u015fman\u0131n nihai bir n\u00fckleer mutabakata ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle tablo k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu temel gerilim, opsiyon volatilitesini y\u00fcksek tutarak \u00f6zg\u00fcn f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir. Tarihsel olarak, bunun gibi jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimler petrol volatilite endekslerinde %40\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7abildi\u011finden, uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak pahal\u0131 hale gelebilir; bu nedenle belirsizlikten prim toplamak amac\u0131yla para d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Art\u0131k t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler, talep g\u00fcc\u00fcne ili\u015fkin i\u015faretler i\u00e7in bu haftaki stok verilerinde olacak. Temkinliyiz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc son Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu 4,1 milyon varillik beklenmedik bir stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; bu da altta yatan talebin halihaz\u0131rda zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc API taraf\u0131ndan raporlanacak yeni bir art\u0131\u015f, bu e\u011filimi teyit edebilir ve fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde sert sat\u0131\u015f: WTI 79,50 dolarla iki ay\u0131n dibinde. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f sinyali ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 arz\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. N\u00fckleer belirsizlik volatiliteyi canl\u0131 tutarken, API\/EIA stoklar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}