ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, New York Times\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019la vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 nihayetinde \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretsizi\u201d (permanently toll free) hale getirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD ile nihai bir n\u00fckleer mutabakata varmamas\u0131 halinde Washington\u2019un Tahran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da b\u00f6lge gelirlerinin %20\u2019si kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cOrta Do\u011fu\u2019nun koruyucusu\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol geriledi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %3,51 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 79,73 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 79,73 dolara gerilemesi, piyasalar\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir sonuca ve kayda de\u011fer bir jeopolitik risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131na fiyatlama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varili ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti yok\u201d garantisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ay\u0131 sinyali niteli\u011finde. Ancak bize g\u00f6re bu ilk tepki k\u0131sa vadeli ve anla\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ikili (binary) bir olay olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa, anla\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu durumda ya tehdidi yap\u0131lan askeri ad\u0131mlar ya da Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik devasa yeni bir vergi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tek g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlamak, sert bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket potansiyelini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in yeterli.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli Brent ve WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine \u201czarar yazma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Dayanak petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle bu t\u00fcrevler \u015fu an daha ucuz ve gerilimin yeniden y\u00fckselmesi halinde kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bir getiri potansiyeli sunacak. Ayr\u0131ca, nihai fiyat hareketi yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olsun, bekledi\u011fimiz y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) bu haberle muhtemelen gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131, iskonto ile oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in de\u011ferli bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira piyasa yak\u0131nda uygulama riskleri ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla y\u00fczle\u015fecek. Uyum eksikli\u011fine veya siyasi s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeye dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesine neden olur; bu da uzun oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 son derece k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisse senedi sekt\u00f6rlerinde de pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge ediyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi (de-escalation) senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir hamle olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma y\u00fcklenicileri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik enerji dar bo\u011faz\u0131nda risk profili dramatik bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fen tanker ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k endeksleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 da inceliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok iddia: Trump, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretsizi\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; aksi halde sald\u0131r\u0131 ya da %20 gelir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201ckoruyucu\u201d teklif etti. Petrol %3,51 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak anla\u015fma k\u0131r\u0131lgan, opsiyonlarla volatiliteye oynan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48752"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48752\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}