AUD\/USD, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmek \u00fczere bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na vard\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7075\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bloomberg, Washington ile Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik bir mutabakata ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, iki taraf\u0131n da L\u00fcbnan dahil t\u00fcm cephelerde askeri operasyonlar\u0131n derhal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak sona erdi\u011fini ilan etti\u011fini bildirdi. Odak \u015fimdi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faiz karar\u0131na kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi, ABD ile bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131 ve bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki taahh\u00fctler yerine getirildikten sonra daha geni\u015f bir anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik nihai g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal ve tamamen sona erece\u011fini belirtirken, Mehr Haber Ajans\u0131 ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde tamamen kald\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran d\u00fczenlemeleri kapsam\u0131nda 30 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Piyasalar, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, RBA\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ilk kez politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi senaryosunu fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte klasik bir \u201crisk-on\u201d hareketi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da k\u0131sa vadede AUD\/USD\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Beklenen piyasa volatilitesindeki sert gerileme\u2014muhtemelen VIX\u2019in son zirvelerinden d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclecek\u2014paritede al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu strateji, pozitif duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktan kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalarken riski de tan\u0131mlamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 burada en belirleyici unsur. Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesini ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80-90 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesini bekliyoruz. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri, k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltarak AUD gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini destekleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc RBA karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli olmak gerekiyor. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon \u0131l\u0131mlam\u0131\u015f olsa da, Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (ABS) son \u00e7eyreklik verileri enflasyonun %3,6 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcvercin bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131, 0,7100 seviyesi civar\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi h\u0131zla s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda stratejimizin \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeye odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir. RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olumlu etkisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in haftal\u0131k vadeli AUD\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Bullock\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, aran\u0131n ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu teyit eder ve \u015fahin e\u011filimi korursa AUD daha yukar\u0131 k\u0131rabilir; aksi durumda pozisyonlar\u0131 kapatmay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son dakika: ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, AUD\/USD 0,7075\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp AUD\u2019yi destekleyebilir. G\u00f6zler Sal\u0131 RBA\u2019da; olas\u0131 g\u00fcvercin duraklama 0,7100\u2019u s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}