Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirecek bir anla\u015fma \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u015eerif, iki taraf\u0131n L\u00fcbnan d\u00e2hil t\u00fcm cephelerde askeri operasyonlar\u0131 derhal ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak durdurduklar\u0131n\u0131 ilan etti\u011fini belirtti. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump da sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda \u0130ran ile anla\u015fman\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fccretsiz ge\u00e7i\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 onaylad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulayarak, di\u011fer taraf\u0131n bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki taahh\u00fctleri yerine getirmesinin ard\u0131ndan nihai g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ise deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n derhal ve tamamen sona ermesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fl\u0131klara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 80,00 dolardan g\u00f6rd\u00fc. WTI, Cushing merkezi \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lan, ABD kaynakl\u0131 hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc bir ham petrol g\u00f6stergesidir; fiyat\u0131 arz-talep dengesi, jeopolitik kesintiler ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra OPEC kota kararlar\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenir. API ve EIA\u2019n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok verileri de fiyatlar\u0131 oynatabilir; sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla birbirine yak\u0131nd\u0131r ve zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde aralar\u0131ndaki fark %1 i\u00e7inde kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc \u00f6nemli jeopolitik risk primini ortadan kald\u0131rarak enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00f6kl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Piyasan\u0131n bu haberi sindirmesiyle birlikte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda WTI ve Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 i\u00e7in derhal ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7i\u015finin g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da tedarik zinciri kaynakl\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca korkuyu an\u0131nda ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Daha kritik unsur ise \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden piyasaya d\u00f6nmesi; bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ilave sa\u011flayabilir. EIA\u2019n\u0131n son raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel talebin yumu\u015fama sinyalleri verdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde bu arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 devreye giriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131m\u0131zda, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle y\u00fckselmi\u015f olan z\u0131mni volatilitede sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX), 35\u2019in \u00fczerindeki son zirvelerinden uzun vadeli ortalamas\u0131 olan 20\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na do\u011fru gerileyebilir. Bu nedenle, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ve volatilitedeki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin put spread almak veya call spread satmak.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 80 dolar destek seviyesini k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadede 72-75 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz riskinin ortadan kalkmas\u0131 fiyatlar \u00fczerinde uzun s\u00fcreli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Haftal\u0131k stok verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; zira art\u0131k ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda d\u00fczenli art\u0131\u015flar (build) g\u00f6rmeyi bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik en \u00f6nemli kar\u015f\u0131 risk, OPEC+\u2019tan gelebilecek olas\u0131 koordineli bir yan\u0131t. Kartelin piyasay\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak ve yeni bir fiyat taban\u0131 olu\u015fturmak \u00fczere daha derin \u00fcretim kesintileri a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in acil bir toplant\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir toplant\u0131ya ili\u015fkin her haber, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmemiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir sinyal olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son dakika: ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol\u00fcn risk primini siliyor. WTI %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, 72-75 hedefleniyor. \u0130ran arz\u0131 geri d\u00f6nerken OVX gerileyebilir; OPEC+ kar\u015f\u0131 hamlesi risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48747\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}