Elliott Dalga Prensibi (EWP) \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ile piyasa geni\u015fli\u011finin birle\u015fimi, 3 Haziran\u2019da S&P 500 (SPX) yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.570$ seviyesindeyken, kan\u0131tlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrebilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck dereceli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Endeks daha sonra sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 7.237$\u2019ye kadar geriledi ve ard\u0131ndan 7.456$\u2019ya toparland\u0131. Bir sonraki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen hareket, (gri) c\/iii = 1,618x a\/i\u2019den c\/iii = a\/i\u2019ye uzanan Fibonacci ili\u015fkilerine dayanarak 6.840\u20137.075$ band\u0131na do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Bu senaryo, SPX\u2019in 7.598$ alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve 7.598$\u2019in 7.598\u20137.598$ band\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ilgili tavan i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmesi ko\u015fuluna ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli takip, dalga say\u0131mlar\u0131 ve hedef b\u00f6lgeleri \u00fczerinden \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi. 4\u20135 Haziran i\u00e7in yay\u0131mlanan haftal\u0131k yol haritas\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir dip ard\u0131ndan 7.595$ +\/-10\u2019a toparlanma ve sonras\u0131nda 7.490$ +\/-30\u2019a do\u011fru bir itki bekliyordu; SPX 4 Haziran\u2019da 7.516$ ile a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, 7.598$\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve 5 Haziran\u2019da 7.368$\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 8 Haziran\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc ve 9 Haziran\u2019daki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc be\u015f (turuncu) dalgan\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul edildi; bu da \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 d\u00fczeltici bir tepkiyi ima etti: W-a 7.380\u20137.430$ (ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen 7.396$), W-b 7.300$ +\/-25 (ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen 7.257$) ve W-c 7.465\u20137.530$ (\u015fu ana kadarki zirve 7.456$) olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131na dayanarak, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrebilecek anlaml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn erken a\u015famalar\u0131nda oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Son ralliyi ge\u00e7ici bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da bir sonraki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hamle i\u00e7in pozisyon almak ad\u0131na bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 6.840-7.075$ aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, zorlanma sinyalleri veren son ekonomik verilerle de destekleniyor. En son May\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporu beklentilerin \u00fczerinde, %3,8 ile daha s\u0131cak geldi; bu da enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca VIX diplerinden y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde; son d\u00f6nemde 18\u2019in \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131, piyasa endi\u015fesinde ince bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Trader\u2019lar i\u00e7in bunun anlam\u0131, 7.598$ seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6rmemiz gerekti\u011fi. Beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in vadesi temmuz sonu veya a\u011fustos olan SPX ya da SPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu pozisyonlar, potansiyel sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften k\u00e2r etmeye y\u00f6nelik, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimiz bir di\u011fer strateji, kritik 7.600$ diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip call credit spread satmak. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, S&P 500 kilit ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyemizin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece hem endeksteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften hem de zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Direkt a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015fa k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek ba\u015far\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in \/ES kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik net bir sinyal g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; koruyucu zarar-kes emrinin 7.598$ zirvesinin hemen \u00fczerine konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu seviye mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu i\u00e7in \u201ckumdaki \u00e7izgi\u201d niteli\u011finde. \u00dczerine bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, pozisyonumuzu derhal yeniden de\u011ferlendirmemizi gerektirir.<\/p>\n
Bu kurulum, 2008\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen aldat\u0131c\u0131 ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 rallileri gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa ortamlar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde sert tepkiler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha da keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftu. Disiplinli kalmal\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sahte g\u00fcven duygusuna kap\u0131lmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Kan\u0131tlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir piyasaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S&P 500\u2019de Elliott Dalga ve piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi, birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcrebilecek maj\u00f6r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor: 7.598$ alt\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a hedef 6.840\u20137.075$. S\u0131cak T\u00dcFE ve y\u00fckselen VIX sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Put\/call spread, \/ES short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48744"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48744\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}