G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililer, k\u0131sa vadeli USD fonlama stresini hafifletmek ve Kore wonu \u00fczerindeki spek\u00fclatif bask\u0131y\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak amac\u0131yla \u00e7ok ayakl\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz (FX) istikrar paketi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda, USD likiditesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek \u00fczere FX istikrar vergisine (levy) ge\u00e7ici muafiyet ve fazla FX mevduatlar\u0131na \u00f6denen faizin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 (oran\u0131n Fed faizine endekslenmesi) yer al\u0131yor. Denetim taraf\u0131nda da ortak tefti\u015fler ve b\u00fcy\u00fck FX bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha yak\u0131ndan izlenmesiyle g\u00f6zetim s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131; won beklentilerini desteklemek ve istikrar\u0131 bozucu i\u015flemleri cayd\u0131rmak i\u00e7in s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeden yapt\u0131r\u0131m odakl\u0131 uygulamaya ge\u00e7i\u015f sinyali verildi.<\/p>\n
Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara, ihracat gelirlerini daha h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde KRW\u2019ye \u00e7evirerek ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki fonlar\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri getirerek FX arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmalar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Paket, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoK), Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Finansal Denetim Servisi\u2019nin (FSS) kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 acil toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Ayr\u0131 olarak BoK Ba\u015fkan\u0131, faizlerin \u201czaman\u0131nda\u201d art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek 16 Temmuz\u2019daki bir sonraki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce hamle yap\u0131labilece\u011fine dair kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakt\u0131; vergi muafiyetinin ise alt\u0131 ay s\u00fcrmesi planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililerin wonu desteklemek i\u00e7in art\u0131k ciddi ve koordineli ad\u0131mlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00e7ok ayakl\u0131 paket yaln\u0131zca s\u00f6ylem de\u011fil; spek\u00fclasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlama ve kurda istikrar sa\u011flama niyetine y\u00f6nelik net bir mesaj. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, k\u0131sa vadede USD\/KRW\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n riskinin belirgin \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu tedbirler, wonun bu ay dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1415 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda geldi. May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan bu yana %2\u2019yi a\u015fan de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerini \u00f6teleyece\u011fi beklentileri belirleyici oldu. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin May\u0131s 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 milyar dolar d\u00fc\u015ferek 412,7 milyar dolara geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu 19 ay\u0131n en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve yetkililerin halihaz\u0131rda piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fini teyit ediyor. \u015eimdiki yeni ve kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k hamle ise kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon masam\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, kamu otoritesinin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi ve bankalara y\u00f6nelik daha s\u0131k\u0131 denetim, k\u0131sa vadeli volatiliteyi bast\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Bu nedenle, USD\/KRW al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in opsiyon kolyesi (collar) kurulmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; zira sert yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ani s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yetkililer, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kurda fiili bir tavan olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
16 Temmuz\u2019daki planl\u0131 toplant\u0131dan \u00f6nce bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret eden a\u00e7\u0131klama kritik bir uyar\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Bu durum, FX forward\u2019lar ve swap\u2019lar \u00fczerinden won aleyhine pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha maliyetli hale getiriyor. Ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetindeki (carry) de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131; bu da USD\/KRW\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha az k\u00e2rl\u0131 k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022 sonundaki \u201coyun plan\u0131n\u0131\u201d hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: benzer resmi bask\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahaleler 1440 seviyesinin savunulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f ve ard\u0131ndan sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu tarihsel emsal dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanma konusunda temkinli olmak gerekir. At\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n, Samsung gibi ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n dolar varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satmaya zorlayarak KRW arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve parite \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz hamle: G\u00fcney Kore, wonu savunmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ayakl\u0131 FX istikrar paketi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. USD likiditesi art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor, bankalara denetim s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 geliyor; USD\/KRW long riski y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47803,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}