ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu (CFTC) verilerine g\u00f6re, ticari olmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n elinde bulunan petrolde net uzun (net long) pozisyonlar 130,3 bine geriledi. \u00d6nceki raporlama d\u00f6neminde bu rakam 155,9 bin seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Ticari olmayan net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n 155,9 binden 130,3 bine d\u00fc\u015fmesini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cay\u0131\u201d sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bahislerini \u00e7\u00f6zmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrede g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz en b\u00fcy\u00fck haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel arz verileriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son EIA raporu, ABD ham petrol \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,2 milyon varil ile rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu istikrarl\u0131 \u00fcretim, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde piyasaya varil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden son y\u00f6nlendirmeleriyle birle\u015fince, fiyat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Talep taraf\u0131nda ise, ba\u015fl\u0131ca t\u00fcketicilerden gelen son ekonomik veriler endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in son Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisi 51,7 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde kalsa da, yeni ihracat sipari\u015flerindeki yava\u015flama gelecekte enerji talebinin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019de ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 229 bine hafif y\u00fckselmesi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ederek ekonomik aktivitede yava\u015flama ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Makroekonomik ortam da ham petrol i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 105 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek petrol\u00fc yabanc\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu parasal bask\u0131, spek\u00fclat\u00f6r pozisyonlanmas\u0131ndaki sert gerilemeyle birle\u015fti\u011finde, tarihsel olarak 2023\u2019\u00fcn d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6zlenen paterne benzer \u015fekilde fiyatlarda yatayla\u015fma ya da geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu fakt\u00f6rler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in stratejimizi revize ediyoruz. WTI ve Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon riskini azaltman\u0131n ihtiyatl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 70 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck band\u0131na do\u011fru gev\u015feme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla bear call spread kurmay\u0131 veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde alarm: CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net uzun pozisyonu 155,9 binden 130,3 bine indi. Arz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, talep endi\u015feli, DXY bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; WTI\/Brent\u2019te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 hedge g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}