ABD ve \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f n\u00fckleer malzemenin bir denetim rejimi alt\u0131nda \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bir n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Taslak metin, zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f malzemenin imhas\u0131 ve \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015fartlar\u0131 da ortaya koyuyor ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n tasfiyesine giden yolu a\u00e7\u0131yor; \u0130ran, hi\u00e7bir zaman n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirmemeyi taahh\u00fct ediyor. ABD, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde imza bekliyor; ancak yetkililer, metinde ilerleme ve \u00e7\u0131karma ile imhaya dair daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015f\u0131ya ra\u011fmen taraflar\u0131n hen\u00fcz \u201cbiti\u015f \u00e7izgisinde\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran i\u00e7in ekonomik kazan\u0131mlar ko\u015fullu olacak. \u0130ran, imza an\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u015fey almayacak; yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi ve di\u011fer \u00f6d\u00fcller performansa g\u00f6re kademeli bi\u00e7imde ayarlanacak. Yetkililer bunu \u201c\u0130ran ne kadar teslimat yaparsa, o kadar alabilir\u201d \u015feklinde \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor. S\u00fcre\u00e7, uygulama detaylar\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmek \u00fczere 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir teknik m\u00fczakereyi, daha geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgesel bar\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlemesiyle birlikte \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Avrupa olas\u0131 bir imza yeri olarak g\u00fcndeme gelse de hen\u00fcz karar verilmi\u015f de\u011fil. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcvensizlik ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 muhalefet bildirileri e\u015fli\u011finde, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda g\u00fcven in\u015fas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir s\u00fcreci de i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok yak\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda jeopolitik risk priminde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130zlenmesi gereken ana piyasa enerji; zira anla\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda net. Bu durum, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gev\u015fetildik\u00e7e k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u0130ran, aylar i\u00e7inde piyasaya g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ilave arz getirebilir; WTI ham petrol\u00fc \u015fu anda 85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken bu yeni arz, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya call spread sat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir risk azalt\u0131c\u0131 geli\u015fmedir. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019ne g\u00f6re bu \u201cdarbo\u011faz\u201ddan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol s\u0131v\u0131s\u0131, yani k\u00fcresel talebin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i ge\u00e7iyor. Yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lman\u0131n garanti edilmesi, fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutan arz \u015foku tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryonun 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131nda daha \u00f6nce ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ocak 2016\u2019da anla\u015fman\u0131n uygulanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen alt\u0131 ayda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 30 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015fti. Tarih, yeni ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin\u2014daha fazla \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn\u2014fiyatlanmas\u0131yla benzer, ancak muhtemelen daha az dramatik bir e\u011filim beklememiz gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin azalmas\u0131, piyasa volatilitesinde de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7mal\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eu anda 18 civar\u0131nda seyreden VIX endeksinin, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik kayna\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fck\u00e7e gerilemesi muhtemel. VIX call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya volatilite ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir strateji olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve azalan jeopolitik risk, genel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu (bullish) bir unsurdur. Daha ucuz yak\u0131t t\u00fcketiciye fayda sa\u011flar ve b\u00fcy\u00fck sekt\u00f6rlerde girdi maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr; bu da S&P 500 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilir. Bu olumlu havadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in ana endekslerde call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz imzalanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019a sa\u011flanacak faydalar\u0131n performansa ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Metin, imzadan sonra dahi \u201c60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck teknik m\u00fczakere\u201d d\u00f6neminden bahsediyor; bu da yapt\u0131r\u0131m gev\u015femesinin kademeli olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z zaman i\u00e7ine yayarak art\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fman\u0131n kendi taraf\u0131na uydu\u011funa dair teyitler yak\u0131ndan izlenmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: ABD-\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzaya yakla\u015f\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kademeli gev\u015femesi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, risk primini ve VIX\u2019i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}