{"id":48735,"date":"2026-06-13T01:34:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T01:34:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/deutsche-bank-enflasyonun-sogumasi-ve-isgucu-piyasasinin-yumusamasiyla-ingiltere-buyumesinin-boenin-senaryo-asini-takip-ettigini-goruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-13T01:34:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T01:34:32","slug":"deutsche-bank-enflasyonun-sogumasi-ve-isgucu-piyasasinin-yumusamasiyla-ingiltere-buyumesinin-boenin-senaryo-asini-takip-ettigini-goruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/deutsche-bank-enflasyonun-sogumasi-ve-isgucu-piyasasinin-yumusamasiyla-ingiltere-buyumesinin-boenin-senaryo-asini-takip-ettigini-goruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank, Enflasyonun So\u011fumas\u0131 ve \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Yumu\u015famas\u0131yla \u0130ngiltere B\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin BoE\u2019nin Senaryo A\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 Takip Etti\u011fini G\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank, \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin, 2026\u2019ya merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n da deste\u011fiyle, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Senaryo A\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 en yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fini belirtti. 2026 2\u00c7\u2019de \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin (\u00e7\/\u00e7) 2026 1\u00c7\u2019deki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ivmenin ard\u0131ndan %0,1\u2013%0,2\u2019ye do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 beklenenden bir miktar daha zay\u0131f olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Mevcut piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda bu y\u0131l y\u0131ll\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi BoE personelinin %0,9\u2019luk tahmini seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

2026 1\u00c7\u2019deki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131 hesaba katan banka, BoE\u2019nin ko\u015fulland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f projeksiyonunun Senaryo A\u2019daki %0,8\u2019e k\u0131yasla %1\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin ediyor; 2027\u2019de (ikinci y\u0131l) b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise %1\u2019de kalmas\u0131n\u0131, Senaryo A ve Senaryo B ile genel olarak uyumlu olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Fiyatlar cephesinde T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Senaryo A\u2019n\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Senaryo B\u2019nin ko\u015fulland\u0131rma varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda ise iki y\u0131l ve \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l ufuklar\u0131nda BoE projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 0,1\u20130,15 y\u00fczde puan alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek, daha uzun vadelerde man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %2 hedefinin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Makroekonomik E\u011filimler ve Para Politikas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar<\/h3>\n

\u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte so\u011fuyan enflasyonun e\u015flik etti\u011fi bir patikay\u0131 izledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ONS\u2019nin son verileri, May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %2,1 ile tahminlerin hemen alt\u0131nda g\u00f6stererek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirdi. Bu da BoE\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte daha az aciliyet hissedece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bunda kritik unsur, beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere yumu\u015famaya ba\u015flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131. En son istihdam raporu i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise ivme kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6stererek \u00fccret-fiyat sarmal\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri azaltt\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, piyasan\u0131n BoE\u2019nin ilerideki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamas\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Konumlanmas\u0131: Faizler, D\u00f6viz ve Hisse Senetleri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, piyasan\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir gelecek faiz patikas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, SONIA vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m gibi g\u00fcvercin bir de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanacak i\u015flemlerin tercih edilmesini i\u00e7eriyor. BoE\u2019nin, beklenenden daha erken faizleri sabitlemeye veya indirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir sinyal vermesi halinde bu pozisyonlar de\u011fer kazanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha \u015fahin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sterlinin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine de i\u015faret ediyor. Daha az agresif bir BoE, sterlin ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha az cazip k\u0131lar. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik opsiyon stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin put al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Hisse piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fan faizler senaryosu destekleyici. Bu ortam\u0131n, ekonomik talep korunurken \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutarak \u0130ngiltere hisselerine olumlu yans\u0131mas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu nedenle, yurt i\u00e7i odakl\u0131 \u015firketlerin fayda sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle FTSE 250 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara bak\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, so\u011fuyan enflasyon: Deutsche Bank\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere BoE Senaryo A\u2019ya yak\u0131n. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, T\u00dcFE d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu, daha g\u00fcvercin BoE, zay\u0131f sterlin, FTSE 250 i\u00e7in destek demek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48735"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48735\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}