Alt\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda gelecek hafta potansiyel bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131labilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemlerin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunarak 4.216 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,11 y\u00fckseldi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Cenevre\u2019deki G7 toplant\u0131s\u0131 civar\u0131nda imza at\u0131labilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki spek\u00fclasyonlarla birlikte \u0130slamabad Mutabakat Zapt\u0131\u2019na (MOU) \u00e7evrilirken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belgenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fini bildirdi. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilir; bu da enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131nda enflasyon endi\u015felerini yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz dinamikleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) bu y\u0131l s\u0131ras\u0131yla 75 ve 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131r\u0131rken, ABD tahvil getirilerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi bask\u0131lad\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 1,5 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,477\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,77 ile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay kald\u0131 ve %0,06 y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2019de haziran t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 44,8\u2019den 48,9\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,8\u2019den %4,6\u2019ya geriledi; dikkatler \u015fimdi Fed karar\u0131, SEP (Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti) ve Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,50 toparland\u0131; diren\u00e7 4.250 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 4.300 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.450 dolar seviyesinde bulunuyor. Destek ise 4.200 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.150, 4.023 ve 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131nda belirgin bir \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, g\u00fcvercin bir merkez bankas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli ile \u00f6nemli bir jeopolitik risk priminin ortadan kalkmas\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu tablo, basit y\u00f6n bahislerini tehlikeli k\u0131larak, bizzat oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G7 toplant\u0131s\u0131na dair haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 etraf\u0131nda beklenen fiyat patlamas\u0131n\u0131 opsiyonlarla i\u015flem yapman\u0131n en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 muhtemel; Gold VIX\u2019in (GVZ) kendi tarihsel ortalamas\u0131 olan 17\u2019nin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Straddle veya strangle kullan\u0131m\u0131, anla\u015fman\u0131n sonucunu do\u011fru tahmin etmeye gerek kalmadan her iki y\u00f6nde sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Zorunlu olarak y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f al\u0131nacaksa, bu tamamen Fed\u2019in tepkisine dayan\u0131r. Enflasyonu rahatlatan teyitli bir anla\u015fma, tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen g\u00fcvercin bir kaymaya yol a\u00e7abilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin alt\u0131n, yaln\u0131zca Fed faiz indirim beklentisiyle 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Bu senaryoda 4.300 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesini hedefleyen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadleri (bull call spread) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131 halinde \u201chaberi sat\u201d tepkisi son derece ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ihtimal. Alt\u0131n\u0131 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan jeopolitik korku primi ortadan kalkabilir; t\u0131pk\u0131 2015\u2019te \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin duyurulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde gerilemesine benzer bi\u00e7imde. Bu da 11 Haziran dip seviyesi olan 4.023 dolar civar\u0131ndaki deste\u011fi hedefleyen sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (put) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, anla\u015fman\u0131n durumundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, Ba\u015fkan Warsh d\u00f6nemindeki ilk toplant\u0131 olacak gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Piyasa beklentilerini belirlemede tonu kritik olacak. Ayr\u0131ca, belirsizli\u011fin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan opsiyon primlerinin keskin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi bir \u201cvolatilite \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d (volatility crush) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler G7 \u00f6ncesi ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalinde: fiyat 4.216 dolarda tutunuyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 risk primini silebilir. Tahvil faizi bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken Fed ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48734\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}