Scotiabank, USD\/JPY\u2019nin yatay ancak y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu; son y\u00fckseli\u015fin ise Ocak\u2019taki \u201cfiyat kontrol\u00fc\u201d ve Nisan sonu\/May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahale dahil olmak \u00fczere, daha \u00f6nce resmi kur y\u00f6netimi ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen seviyelerin \u015fimdiden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Yurti\u00e7i veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde takvim sakin. 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasan\u0131n temel beklentisi olurken, piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banka, toplant\u0131 etraf\u0131nda ileti\u015fim riskine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; zira Ba\u015fkan Ueda toplant\u0131ya kat\u0131lmayacak ve bu durum toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l y\u00f6netilece\u011fine dair oda\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Grafikler taraf\u0131nda Scotiabank, mevcut spot seviyelerden 162\u2019ye kadar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 diren\u00e7 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; 156\u2013158 band\u0131nda ise destek olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yendeki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k bizim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131; USD\/JPY\u2019yi daha \u00f6nce m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyen seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yor. Parite \u015fu anda 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 2024 sonu ve 2025 ortas\u0131nda yetkililerin devreye girdi\u011fi noktalar\u0131n zaten \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumday\u0131z. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak BoJ faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ortam\u0131 olduk\u00e7a gergin hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ani bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet ad\u0131m\u0131 riski nedeniyle volatilitede keskin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k vadeye ili\u015fkin ima edilen volatilite \u015fimdiden %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
16 Haziran\u2019da BoJ\u2019dan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklentisi yayg\u0131n; ancak bunun yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye yetmeyebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Son veriler ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n beklentileri a\u015farak 215 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu olan %2,8 seviyesi daha agresif bir BoJ\u2019a i\u015faret edecek kadar y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ileti\u015fimi de bir di\u011fer endi\u015fe alan\u0131; zira Ba\u015fkan Ueda toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yer almayacak.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131na oynayanlar i\u00e7in, 162 seviyesini hedeflemek ad\u0131na kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n beklenmedik bir m\u00fcdahalesi halinde olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. M\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin 156\u2013158 b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Zay\u0131f yen USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden m\u00fcdahale s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. BoJ \u00f6ncesi 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor, ileti\u015fim riski y\u00fcksek. Volatilite %11,5\u2019te. 162 diren\u00e7, 156\u2013158 destek; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}