\u00c7in\u2019in enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,2 ile de\u011fi\u015fmezken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %1,1\u2019e geriledi; ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00dcFE %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu tablo, kurumsal k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131yla birlikte zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici talebine i\u015faret ediyor. D\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; ticaret fazlas\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler dahil g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle 105,4 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Politika, USD hareketlerini y\u00f6netmek ve yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla hedefli gev\u015feme ile sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha s\u0131k\u0131 kontrolleri birle\u015ftirdi. At\u0131f yap\u0131lan \u00f6nlemler aras\u0131nda, ihracat gelirlerinin \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in bankalar\u0131n SOFR\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde USD mevduat \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nlendirilmesi ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi denetim\/uygulama ad\u0131mlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Yuan b\u00f6lgesel bir \u00e7\u0131pa i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmeye devam ederken, \u00c7in tahvilleri de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k CGB getirilerinin haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dip seviyelerden yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 bp y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen diren\u00e7li kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisinde yuanda istikrar\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu yaln\u0131zca %1,2 ile olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu da zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 105 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret fazlas\u0131, para birimi \u00fczerinde do\u011fal bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu itme-\u00e7ekme dinami\u011fi, yuan\u0131n \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemeyen otoriteler taraf\u0131ndan aktif bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netiliyor. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 sermaye kontrolleri, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n dolar gelirlerini \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutmalar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eden ad\u0131mlarla birlikte uygulan\u0131yor. Bu \u201cy\u00f6netilen\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m, USD\/CNH\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131n ve son iki y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde anlaml\u0131 \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rmakta zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu politika bile\u015fimi, bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f volatiliteye i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) fiilen yuan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani hareketleri olas\u0131 k\u0131lm\u0131yor. Bu istikrardan gelir elde eden stratejilere, \u00f6rne\u011fin prim toplamak amac\u0131yla vadesiz (out-of-the-money) opsiyon satmaya bakmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Hedefli i\u00e7 gev\u015feme ile yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlama iste\u011finin birle\u015fimi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, olas\u0131 kademeli e\u011filim daha zay\u0131f bir para birimi lehine olabilir. USD\/CNH\u2019de al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc spread\u2019ler (call spread) gibi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir strateji etkili olabilir. B\u00f6ylece s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk almadan paritedeki yava\u015f yukar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeden (slow grind higher) faydalanabiliriz.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrar, tahvil piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri son dip seviyelerinden \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapmayla yatay kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, di\u011fer k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki volatiliteyle tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cy\u00f6netilen bir g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Mevcut durumda, kurda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout) i\u00e7in pozisyon almak ad\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, \u00e7ekirdekte gerileme s\u00fcrerken \u00dcFE d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde: talep zay\u0131f, marj bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 105,4 milyar $ fazla yuan\u0131 destekliyor; PBoC kontroll\u00fc gev\u015femeyle volatiliteyi bast\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48729\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}