Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA), cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,6 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 51.200 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Endeks 50.800\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, 51.300\u2019e yak\u0131n bir seviyeyi test etti ve piyasalar\u0131n temel verilerden ziyade jeopoliti\u011fi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda seans dibine do\u011fru k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fad\u0131. Fiyat hareketi, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir uzla\u015f\u0131 sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015f s\u00f6ylemleri takip etti: Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif nihai metin \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 \u0130ran ham petrol ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bir MOU\u2019daki \u015fartlar\u0131 dola\u015f\u0131ma soktu. Tahran\u2019daki ek anlat\u0131larda ABD asker\u00ee birliklerinin \u00e7ekilmesi ve 300 milyar dolar veya daha fazla bir yeniden in\u015fa finansman\u0131 da yer ald\u0131; ancak Washington bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 do\u011frulamad\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, yeni bir drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019\u0131n versiyonunu da reddederken, imzan\u0131n en erken bu hafta sonu Cenevre\u2019de at\u0131labilece\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta WTI ham petrol %3 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 84 dolara geriledi. SpaceX, halka arz\u0131n\u0131 135 dolardan fiyatlad\u0131; SPCX kodu ile 150 dolardan a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde primli i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Nasdaq Bile\u015fik Endeksi\u2019ni %0,1 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da b\u0131rakt\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi 46\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 48,9 geldi; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,8\u2019den %4,6\u2019ya gerilerken 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %3,9\u2019dan %3,4\u2019e indi. T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 iken piyasalar, gelecek \u00e7ar\u015famba Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; CME FedWatch %96\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %30 civar\u0131nda; ekimde %40\u2019a yak\u0131n, aral\u0131kta ise %60\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor; bu da %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n teyit edilmemi\u015f haberlere verdi\u011fi tepki dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde belirgin bir olay riski g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dow\u2019un jeopolitik man\u015fetlere, \u00f6zellikle ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131na duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, volatil bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) 21,5\u2019e t\u0131rmanarak bu gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert hareketlere haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re en do\u011frudan i\u015flem, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylenti ile ger\u00e7eklik aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma \u00fczerine. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol, bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir sonuca g\u00f6re fiyatlama yapm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; ancak denizcilik istihbarat\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker trafi\u011finin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi ortalamaya k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 %60 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da, Cenevre g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin hafta sonunda aksamas\u0131 halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201csnap-back\u201d rallisinin olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, XLE gibi enerji ETF\u2019lerinde a\u011fustos vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019i (XLI) \u00fczerindeki put\/call oran\u0131 3 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne gerileyerek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor; bunun gerek\u00e7esiz olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. XLI\u2019da put almak, \u201canla\u015fma yok\u201d senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 iyi bir hedge sunuyor; b\u00f6yle bir durumda Dow\u2019un en b\u00fcy\u00fck bile\u015fenleri daha sert darbe alabilir.<\/p>\n
SpaceX halka arz\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen teknoloji hisselerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\/rotasyon, bir di\u011fer ana tema. Dow\u2019un Nasdaq\u2019a k\u0131yasla g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fcnden faydalanan stratejileri tercih ediyoruz. Basit bir pair trade; Dow vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131p, buna e\u015fde\u011fer bir tutarda Nasdaq 100 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak, bu devam eden kaymay\u0131 yakalayabilir.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 ikincil, ancak \u00f6nemli bir odak noktas\u0131. Piyasa faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin olsa da, g\u00fcncellenen ekonomik projeksiyonlar kritik olacak. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %61 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; Fed\u2019den \u015fahin bir ton, hisse rallisini h\u0131zla durdurabilir.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonuna ili\u015fkin yak\u0131n vadeli riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketinden faydalanan opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131yla konumlan\u0131yoruz. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF\u2019i (DIA) \u00fczerinde 1 ay vadeli straddle\u2019lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalan\u0131p piyasan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi halinde de, s\u00fcrecin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcp hisselerin sat\u0131\u015f yemesi halinde de kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Man\u015fetler piyasay\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor: Dow %0,6 art\u0131\u015fla 51.200\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6ylentisiyle petrol %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, VIX 21,5. Fed sabit beklenirken, opsiyonla hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47744,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48728\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}