Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti; XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.246 dolarla zirveyi g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.200 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken, piyasalar olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni y\u00f6n belirleyici geli\u015fmeleri bekledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n iptal edildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi, alt\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.023 dolardan toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, ABD Dolar\u0131 da de\u011fer kaybetti. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, ABD ile bir Mutabakat Muht\u0131ras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201chi\u00e7 bu kadar yak\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtse de, Tahran hen\u00fcz nihai karar\u0131 teyit etmedi; bu durum alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tuttu.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon verileri de, daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz (higher-for-longer) senaryosunu destekleyerek hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. T\u00dcFE, May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Nisan\u2019daki %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, \u00dcFE %5,7\u2019den %6,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dolar\u0131n g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla (DXY yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,78), metal ikinci haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne do\u011fru ilerledi. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Haziran\u2019da 44,8\u2019den 48,9\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ve be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,8 ve %3,9\u2019dan %4,6 ve %3,4\u2019e geriledi. Teknik seviyeler, fiyat\u0131n 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.425 dolar) alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu; RSI\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 35, ADX\u2019in ise 35 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Destek b\u00f6lgeleri 4.149 ve 4.000 dolar, diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgeleri ise 4.425 ve 4.701 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Piyasa, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fahin bir Fed ile tartarken alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 4.200 dolar seviyesi etraf\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011funu izliyoruz. 4.023 dolardaki dipten gelen son tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi, anla\u015fman\u0131n bu hafta sonu imzalan\u0131p imzalanmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair belirsizlik nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik gerilimler, k\u0131sa vadede belirgin bir oynakl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu belirsizlik bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k son bir haftada %18\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu, opsiyon primlerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor, ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasan\u0131n belirgin bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6steriyor. Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n teyit edilmesi halinde \u201chaberi sat\u201d (sell the news) kaynakl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131, put spread al\u0131m\u0131 gibi stratejilerin korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 etkili olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri belirsizlik ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olma e\u011filimindedir. \u0130ran N\u00fckleer Anla\u015fmas\u0131 (JCPOA) 2016 ba\u015f\u0131nda devreye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 ilk etapta k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir ralli g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girerek %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti. Burada da benzer bir risk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: anla\u015fman\u0131n teyidi, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek s\u00fctununu ortadan kald\u0131rabilir ve fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden 4.000 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i ekonomik veriler, alt\u0131n gibi getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporunun enflasyonu %4,2 seviyesinde g\u00f6stermesi\u2014Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde\u2014politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Hatta Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, 2026 sonuna kadar bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini art\u0131k %10\u2019un alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran, yaln\u0131zca iki ay \u00f6nce fiyatlanan %45 olas\u0131l\u0131ktan keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en g\u00fcncel Commitment of Traders raporu, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin ve hedge fonlar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki net uzun (net-long) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art arda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftada azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, kurumsal paran\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeline kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli hale geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bunu do\u011fruluyor; fiyat, 4.425 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 yeniden kazanmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut fiyat hareketini olas\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 4.425 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa pozisyon denemeyi veya put opsiyonu almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnece\u011fiz. \u0130lk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefimiz, psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli 4.000 dolar b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131ndaki son diplerin yeniden test edilmesi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f\u0131na: 4.200 dolarda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan XAU\/USD, sald\u0131r\u0131 iptaliyle dipten tepki verdi. Ancak y\u00fcksek enflasyon, \u015fahin Fed ve artan oynakl\u0131k 4.000 riski b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48725"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48725\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}