Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanan bir Reuters anketine g\u00f6re, 65 ekonomistle yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rma Bank of England\u2019\u0131n (BoE) 18 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Bank Rate\u2019i %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Haziran sonras\u0131 beklentiler ise b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc: Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %40\u2019\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, alt\u0131 ekonomist faiz indirimi bekliyor. Fiyatlara ili\u015fkin olarak anket, enflasyonun bu y\u0131l %3,6 ile zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2\u2019lik hedefinin neredeyse iki kat\u0131na yak\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de %2,6\u2019ya gerileyece\u011fini ortaya koydu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme bu y\u0131l %1 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken (May\u0131s anketindeki %0,8\u2019in \u00fczerinde), gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in %1,1 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
BoE, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta para politikas\u0131n\u0131 %2 enflasyon hedefiyle fiyat istikrar\u0131 mandat\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda belirler; bunu a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ekonomideki bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini \u015fekillendiren ve \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019ni (GBP) etkileyen politika faizini ayarlayarak yapar. Enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011finde faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ve genellikle GBP\u2019yi destekler; enflasyon hedefin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 te\u015fvik etmek i\u00e7in faiz indirimleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir ve bu da \u00e7o\u011fu zaman para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Piyasalar\u0131n stres alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde Niceliksel Gev\u015feme (QE), para yarat\u0131m\u0131yla devlet tahvilleri veya AAA notlu \u015firket tahvillerinin al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erir ve genel olarak GBP\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131r; Niceliksel S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) ise ek al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 durdurarak bunun tersini yapar ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman Sterlin i\u00e7in destekleyicidir.<\/p>\n
18 Haziran\u2019daki Bank of England toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn faizin %3,75\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu beklentinin Sterlin fiyatlamalar\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla karar\u0131n kendisi tek ba\u015f\u0131na sert bir harekete yol a\u00e7mayabilir. Esas odak noktam\u0131z, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) ile toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n tonu olacak; olas\u0131 politika patikas\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 burada aranacak.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler aras\u0131ndaki b\u00f6l\u00fcnme ve kayda de\u011fer bir %40\u2019l\u0131k kesimin y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklemesi, piyasadaki temel belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum volatiliteyi art\u0131rma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sert fiyat hareketinden faydalanabilecek opsiyon stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Toplant\u0131 tarihi yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a GBP paritelerinde ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun bu y\u0131l %3,6 ile zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131 projeksiyonu, \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ba\u011flam a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE Nisan 2024\u2019te %2,3\u2019e gerilemi\u015f olsa da, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc enflasyonundaki inat\u00e7\u0131 seyir politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in kilit bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu alttaki bask\u0131, Banka\u2019n\u0131n piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin (hawkish) kalmas\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %0,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve resesyondan teknik olarak \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son verilerle de destekleniyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, BoE\u2019ye b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bo\u011fmadan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu ortam, daha g\u00fcvercin (dovish) bir merkez bankas\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Sterlin i\u00e7in genel olarak destekleyici.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d kararlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde dahi Sterlin; oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ve Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 dile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tepki verebildi. 2017-2018 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde, ileride s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret eden \u015fahin bir \u201cpas\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131n GBP\/USD\u2019de belirgin bir ralliye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6rnekleri hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Oy say\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanan \u00fcye say\u0131s\u0131ndaki herhangi bir art\u0131\u015f, olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin cephesinde kritik hafta: Reuters anketi, BoE\u2019nin 18 Haziran\u2019da faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak %40 zam bekliyor; enflasyon %3,6\u2019ya, b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1\u2019e revize.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48723","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48723"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48723\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48723"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48723"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48723"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}