Sterlin, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3400 civar\u0131nda tutunarak son kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 konsolide etti ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131na g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yatay ba\u015flad\u0131; haftal\u0131k bazda ise %0,6 art\u0131da. Nisan verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: ayl\u0131k GSYH beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131, sanayi \u00fcretimi beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilenden daha geni\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Dikkatler \u015fimdi gelecek haftaki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k takvimine \u00e7evriliyor: \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE, Per\u015fembe i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri ve ayr\u0131ca Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar BoE\u2019nin politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fine pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; ancak fiyatlamalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya i\u015faret ediyor. GBP\/USD\u2019de momentum g\u00f6stergeleri RSI\u2019\u0131n 50\u2019ye do\u011fru toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, son i\u015flemler 1,33\u2019\u00fcn alt band\u0131nda destek olu\u015fturdu. Yukar\u0131 tarafta 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 1,3469 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve parite 1,3350\u20131,3450 band\u0131nda yatay olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor. BoE karar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak ara se\u00e7im nedeniyle siyasi risk yeniden odakta.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3400 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011funu ve dar bir bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Gelecek haftaki kritik makro veriler ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken bu sakinli\u011fin uzun s\u00fcrmesi beklenmiyor. Piyasa adeta nefesini tutmu\u015f durumda ve bu da volatilite bazl\u0131 i\u015flemler i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kilit enflasyon ve istihdam verileriyle birlikte, ima edilen volatilitede belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Son T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonu %2,3 seviyesinde g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; bu oran Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla olas\u0131 bir s\u00fcrpriz, faiz beklentilerinin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n sonras\u0131na vadeli bir straddle (al\u0131m) stratejisi, iki y\u00f6nde de olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, BoE\u2019nin piyasan\u0131n geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekledi\u011fi \u00fczere faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 ve yeni bir y\u00f6nlendirme vermemesi halinde sterlin yatay bantta kalabilir. Bu senaryoda opsiyon priminin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir. 1,3469\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir call spread sat\u0131p, 1,33\u2019\u00fcn alt band\u0131ndaki kritik deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda bir put spread satarak iron condor stratejisi de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Temel e\u011filimimiz n\u00f6trden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne yak\u0131n; bunda son d\u00f6nemde hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri ve ara se\u00e7im etraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek siyasi risk etkili. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2017\u2019deki erken se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesindeki belirsizlik d\u00f6neminde sterlinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; benzer bir kal\u0131p yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Buna d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in put spread al\u0131m\u0131, 1,3350\u2019nin alt\u0131na bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flarken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin 1,3400 \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE, istihdam ve BoE\u2019de. Piyasalar de\u011fi\u015fim beklemese de 35 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor. 1,3350\u20131,3450 band\u0131nda volatilite ve siyasi risk strateji belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48719\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}