EUR\/GBP Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti; sterline ili\u015fkin daha zay\u0131f veriler, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin so\u011fudu\u011funa dair i\u015faretleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken euro s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Parite 0,8625\u2019teki g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesinin \u00fczerinde, 0,8633 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS) verilerine g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere GSYH\u2019si nisanda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 darald\u0131; bu sonu\u00e7 beklentilerle uyumlu olurken marttaki %0,3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu zemin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; zira banka, h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyreden fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken zay\u0131flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de g\u00f6zetmek zorunda. BoE\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k anketinde, kamuoyunun medyan 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi \u015fubattaki %3,2\u2019den %4,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, gelecek haftaki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor. Reuters\u2019\u0131n 5-12 Haziran d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ankette ekonomistler, Bank Rate\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019\u0131 en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; sadece alt\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 bu tarihe kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim bekledi. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131; enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize etti. Peter Kazimir, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve haziran enflasyonunun temmuz i\u00e7in \u201cbelirleyici\u201d olabilece\u011fini savundu. Nomura, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin siyasi-mali risklerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 0,90 hedefini payla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin nisanda %0,1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesiyle, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yava\u015flama, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n rotas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; banka zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Piyasa faizlerde \u201cpas\u201d senaryosunu fiyatl\u0131yor, ancak alttaki bask\u0131 birikiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019deki bu ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ili\u015fkin son sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi (PMI) verisi de 52,9\u2019a gerileyerek son alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ECB, faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ve blok genelinde enflasyonun yeniden %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ilave ad\u0131mlar\u0131n gelebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, euronun sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 0,8750 civar\u0131nda ve vadesi temmuz sonu ya da a\u011fustos olan \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 iyi bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ECB, k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u0130ngiltere ekonomisi nedeniyle manevra alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olan BoE\u2019ye k\u0131yasla enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede \u00e7ok daha kararl\u0131 bir duru\u015f sergiliyor. ECB yetkilileri, g\u00f6revin hen\u00fcz tamamlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade ediyor; bu da yakla\u015fan Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisini kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r haline getiriyor. \u0130ngiltere ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; tarihsel olarak bu durum EUR\/GBP\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde 0,9000 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Paritenin, 2020 ve 2022\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde de bu seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde riski opsiyonlarla y\u00f6neterek \u00e7aprazda uzun (long) pozisyon in\u015fa edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler EUR\/GBP\u2019de: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de GSYH darald\u0131, PMI zay\u0131flad\u0131; BoE b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikileminde faizleri sabit tutabilir. ECB ise s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Faiz fark\u0131 daralmas\u0131yla 0,90 hedefi ve call opsiyon stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}