ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden man\u015fetler, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesini sa\u011flayarak Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa para birimlerinin son kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Zloti, 4,225\u20134,260 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 test ettikten sonra toparlan\u0131rken, EUR\/HUF 354\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inerek yeni dipler g\u00f6rd\u00fc; piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki seansa kadar yap\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Hareket, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte geldi; ancak enflasyon etkilerinin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda fiyatlamalara yans\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu gerilemenin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini de\u011fi\u015ftirecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Politika beklentileri belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. \u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, jeopolitik tansiyon h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yat\u0131\u015fsa bile, gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha yak\u0131n durdu\u011fu ifade edildi. Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in ana senaryo iki hafta i\u00e7inde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelenirken, forintin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m\u0131n da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 \u201crahatlama\u201d senaryosunda EUR\/HUF\u2019nin 350\u2019ye do\u011fru hareket edebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131yla piyasalarda yeniden risk-on moduna ge\u00e7ildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, zloti ve forint gibi para birimlerinin son d\u00f6nemdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131d\u0131. Brent petrol bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 gerileyerek 88 dolar civar\u0131na inse de, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hen\u00fcz yeterince belirgin de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ek korunas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak, gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na giden yolun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirlenmi\u015f oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret eden son veriler, \u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n korunada al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da k\u0131sa vadeli \u00c7ek faizlerinin y\u00fckseli\u015finden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesine kap\u0131 aralayabilir.<\/p>\n
Macaristan\u2019da ise tablo farkl\u0131; iki hafta i\u00e7inde Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan bir faiz indirimi bekliyoruz. Baz senaryomuz 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim olsa da, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi EUR\/HUF kurunu 350 seviyesine do\u011fru itmeye devam ederse 50 baz puanl\u0131k daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130ndirimin boyutuna ili\u015fkin bu belirsizlik, forint \u00fczerinde straddle gibi volatilite stratejileri kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapan \u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile gev\u015femeye giden Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgede dikkat \u00e7ekici bir i\u015flem temas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda forinte kar\u015f\u0131 korunayla (CZK\/HUF uzun) pozisyon almay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu t\u00fcr \u201cayr\u0131\u015fma\u201d i\u015flemleri, merkez bankas\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde tarihsel olarak iyi performans g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; risk i\u015ftah\u0131 geri geldi. Zloti toparland\u0131, EUR\/HUF 354 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Petrol d\u00fc\u015fse de TL de\u011fil: CB mesaj\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. \u00c7ekya faiz art\u0131r\u0131ma, Macaristan indirime yak\u0131n; CZK\/HUF uzun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}