Sterlin, ABD-\u0130ran cephesindeki bir at\u0131l\u0131ma ba\u011fl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Bu durum, ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131 geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD\u2019yi daha zay\u0131f bir zeminde b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verileri momentumu so\u011futtu: Reel GSYH Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %-0,1 geriledi (Mart: %+0,3) ve bu, A\u011fustos 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu; hizmetler \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k %-0,2 azald\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimi yatay kal\u0131rken in\u015faat ayl\u0131k %+0,1 artt\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki 60bp\u2019den 40bp\u2019ye indirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck anketler zay\u0131f. PMI okumalar\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerindeki yumu\u015faman\u0131n etkisiyle, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k reel GSYH\u2019sinin 2\u00c7\u2019de \u00e7\/\u00e7 %-0,2 daralabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu seviye BoE\u2019nin baz senaryo tahmini olan \u00e7\/\u00e7 %+0,1\u2019in alt\u0131nda. Siyaset de bir di\u011fer risk unsuru: Dikkatler 18 Haziran Makerfield ara se\u00e7imine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; anketler Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131 Reform UK\u2019nin 10 puan \u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer \u00fczerinde parti i\u00e7i bask\u0131 ihtimalini ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n mali duru\u015funa y\u00f6nelik denetimin yeniden artabilece\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019deki son geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sterlin i\u00e7in ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayal\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn t\u00fckendi\u011fi, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki yap\u0131sal ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise bask\u0131n fakt\u00f6r haline geldi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Parite i\u00e7in hedefimiz 1,3100.<\/p>\n
ABD ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomileri aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma geni\u015fliyor. Son ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi %+0,5 ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yaparken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta en g\u00fcncel t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni anketi 12 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan -25\u2019e geriledi. Bu da, zay\u0131flayan sterline kar\u015f\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Swap piyasalar\u0131 tam bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; art\u0131k \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda yaln\u0131zca 40bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f k\u00fcresel bir fakt\u00f6r olsa da, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son \u201cdot plot\u201du politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 koruma konusunda daha y\u00fcksek bir kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasi sahnesi, bizim kanaatimizce yeterince fiyatlanmayan ek bir risk katman\u0131 ekliyor. T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler 18 Haziran\u2019daki Makerfield ara se\u00e7iminde. Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 bir zaferi, anlaml\u0131 bir siyasi belirsizlik yaratabilir ve mevcut \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi liderli\u011fini zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu siyasi risk, sterlin opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k son bir haftada %7,5\u2019ten %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi ve ara se\u00e7im yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Erken Temmuz vadeli, 1,3150 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in temkinli bir yol oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin enflasyona odakl\u0131 duru\u015fu bir taban olu\u015fturarak d\u00fczensiz bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyebilse de, olumsuz duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in yeterli olmas\u0131 muhtemel de\u011fil. GBP\/USD\u2019de en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 sildi; zay\u0131f \u0130ngiltere verileri ve BoE s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin 60bp\u2019den 40bp\u2019ye inmesi GBP\/USD\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. 1,31 hedefi, se\u00e7im riski ve artan volatilite \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48712\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}