National Bank of Canada stratejistleri, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc FOMC Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak alaca\u011f\u0131 ilk faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n, Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n halefinin Fed\u2019i nas\u0131l y\u00f6netece\u011fine dair daha net bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bu de\u011fi\u015fimde ileti\u015fim dili ve \u201creaksiyon fonksiyonunun\u201d belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Warsh, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken, temel bask\u0131lar i\u00e7in PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) g\u00f6stergesinin en iyi vekil olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da sorgulad\u0131; \u201ck\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (trimmed)\u201d ortalamalar\u0131 savundu ve bunlar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde \u201colduk\u00e7a olumlu\u201d bir e\u011filime i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti. Bankan\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131, mevcut fiyat verileri gev\u015femeyle h\u00e2l\u00e2 uyumlu olmasa bile Warsh\u2019\u00fcn enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha rahat bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede sunabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Stratejistler ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in mandatoda vurgu dengesini yeniden ayarlayabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Warsh, sosyal, siyasi ve iklim ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na do\u011fru alg\u0131lanan \u201cmisyon kaymas\u0131\u201dn\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi; onay oturumunda azami istihdama ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etse de, tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca COVID sonras\u0131 politika hatalar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cileri y\u00f6nlendirme\u201dye ba\u011flayarak, ekonomik\/enflasyon\/faiz projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131n\u0131n yetkilileri statik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere kilitleyebilece\u011fini ve yeni ko\u015fullara tepkiyi yava\u015flatabilece\u011fini savundu; yetkililerin fazla konu\u015ftu\u011funu ve kararlar\u0131n \u201codada\u201d al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh art\u0131k Fed\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndayken, daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir politika ortam\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamak zorunday\u0131z. Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131, net ileri y\u00f6nlendirmeden uzakla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik bir kaymay\u0131 teyit etti; bu da Fed sinyallerine g\u00f6re i\u015flem yapmaya dayal\u0131 eski oyun kitab\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar ve aylarda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal olarak daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re art\u0131k temel i\u015flem \u201coynakl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131mak\u201d. Hazine tahvili piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en MOVE endeksi bu hafta 115\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu seviye sadece bir ay \u00f6nce 90\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Makro veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 muhtemel daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve maj\u00f6r hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde straddle ve strangle gibi opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Faizlerin izleyece\u011fi patika yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc asimetrik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. May\u0131s man\u015fet PCE enflasyonu y\u00f6netilebilir d\u00fczeyde %2,6 olsa da, Warsh\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama PCE %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da \u015fahin duru\u015fu korumas\u0131 i\u00e7in ona alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri kullanarak daha yatay (flatter) bir getiri e\u011frisi pozisyonu al\u0131yor, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu politika e\u011filimi ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de pozitif. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) halihaz\u0131rda 106,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de faiz indirimi beklentilerinin Avrupa\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha agresif t\u00f6rp\u00fclenmesiyle birlikte ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro ve Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Toplant\u0131lar aras\u0131nda pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in Fed yetkililerinden gelecek s\u0131k konu\u015fmalara art\u0131k g\u00fcvenemeyiz. Politikan\u0131n \u201codada\u201d belirlendi\u011fi bu yeni ileti\u015fim tarz\u0131, resmi FOMC a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ve Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum, trader\u2019lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00f6nlendirme yerine dildeki ince de\u011fi\u015fimlerden politika kaymalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008 \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemi an\u0131msat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar dikkat: Warsh\u2019\u00fcn ilk FOMC karar\u0131, Fed\u2019de yeni ileti\u015fim ve reaksiyon fonksiyonunu a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131karacak. \u0130leri y\u00f6nlendirme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor. \u015eahin PCE vurgusu, faiz\/dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir; opsiyonla volatilite ta\u015f\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}