{"id":48710,"date":"2026-06-12T18:43:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T18:43:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iran-baris-gorusmelerinin-petrol-endiselerini-azaltmasiyla-dolar-guclu-seyrini-koruyor-fedin-sikilastirma-beklentileri-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T18:43:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T18:43:24","slug":"iran-baris-gorusmelerinin-petrol-endiselerini-azaltmasiyla-dolar-guclu-seyrini-koruyor-fedin-sikilastirma-beklentileri-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iran-baris-gorusmelerinin-petrol-endiselerini-azaltmasiyla-dolar-guclu-seyrini-koruyor-fedin-sikilastirma-beklentileri-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin petrol endi\u015felerini azaltmas\u0131yla dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor; Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Olas\u0131 bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair s\u00f6ylentiler ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 bir miktar azaltm\u0131\u015f olsa da DXY endeksi diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 son haftalarda yumu\u015fayan enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na, \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yabilecek yeni bir 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fczenleme beklentisinden g\u00fc\u00e7 ald\u0131. Ancak daha geni\u015f resim, kaybedilen enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokunu h\u00e2l\u00e2 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde normale d\u00f6nmezse dolar destek bulmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Politika beklentileri de dolar\u0131 destekliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli ABD faizleri gerilemi\u015f olsa da piyasalar bu y\u0131l 20 baz puanl\u0131k Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve gelecek \u00e7ar\u015famba yap\u0131lacak FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde\u2014g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f bir metin ve projeksiyonlar\u0131n da yer alaca\u011f\u0131 bu toplant\u0131da\u2014bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc geri almak zor olabilir. Bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin tonuna ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ate\u015fkes ihtimalinin iyile\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen DXY\u2019nin 99,50 civar\u0131nda destek bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<h3>ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Opsiyon Piyasas\u0131 Stratejisi<\/h3>\n<p>Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00f6ylentilerine kar\u015f\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 99,50 seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede sa\u011flam bir destek izlendi\u011finden, dolar vadeli kontratlar\u0131 veya ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerine para-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak prim toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n bu taban\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; bizim beklentimiz de bu y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\n<h3>Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131, Enflasyon ve Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n<p>Petrol piyasalar\u0131ndaki yumu\u015faman\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, as\u0131l riskin \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmemesi durumunda temmuza girerken fiyatlarda s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fanmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 88 dolardaki son fiyat\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir darbo\u011faz olarak kalmas\u0131 riskini tam yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Ani bir enflasyonist \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131, ham petrol \u00fczerinde orta vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir korunma arac\u0131 oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek seyrederken, Fed\u2019in i\u015fi bitmi\u015f de\u011fil. CME\u2019nin FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasa bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor; bunun gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, bu enstr\u00fcmanlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n tutarl\u0131 bir strateji olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ortam, jeopolitik enerji risklerinin enflasyon odakl\u0131 bir merkez bankas\u0131yla \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr bir kombinasyon, k\u00fcresel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ve enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi nedeniyle dolara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011flar. Bu nedenle, \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan FOMC \u00f6ncesinde dolardaki geri \u00e7ekilmeleri potansiyel al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dikkat: ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f s\u00f6ylentileri dolara bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltsa da DXY diren\u00e7li; enerji arz\u0131 ve enflasyon riski destek veriyor. 99,50\u2019de destek; OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrolde call hedge, Fed\u2019in 20 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}