Nomura\u2019n\u0131n K\u00fcresel FX Stratejisi ekibi, EUR\/GBP\u2019de uzun (long) pozisyonda. Banka, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoE) k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin bir patikada ilerlemesinin \u00e7apraz\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fini savunuyor. Nomura\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesi EUR\/GBP\u2019yi k\u0131sa vadeli (front-end) faiz farklar\u0131na yak\u0131n bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131yor ve daralan faiz diferansiyelleri ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi-mali risklerin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 0,90\u2019a do\u011fru bir hareket i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n g\u00fcncellenen terminal faiz varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na g\u00f6re 2027\u2019de ECB %3,00, BoE ise %3,50 seviyesinde. Bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve gelecek y\u0131l iki faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu varsay\u0131mlar alt\u0131nda Nomura, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n 140 baz puandan 100 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131na daralmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu de\u011fi\u015fimi de EUR\/GBP \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor. 18 Haziran\u2019daki ara se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7 riskleri oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken, 11 Haziran\u2019da Savunma Bakan\u0131 John Healey\u2019nin istifas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmete ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve giderek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ba\u011flam\u0131nda dikkatleri yeniden kamu maliyesine \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
ECB ile BoE aras\u0131nda net bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fekillendi\u011fini ve bunun euronun sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s sonundaki son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun beklenmedik \u015fekilde %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun ise %2,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo ECB\u2019ye \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flarken, BoE\u2019nin daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 tahvil piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr durumda: Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile Almanya aras\u0131ndaki 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131 125 baz puana kadar darald\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda bu fark\u0131n 100 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesini bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 0,90 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket etmesi i\u00e7in net bir patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu e\u011filim ivme kazan\u0131yor ve \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, 18 Haziran\u2019daki ara se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta artan siyasi dalgalanma. Son anketler, Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir meydan okumaya i\u015faret ederek belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve bu da sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Savunma Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcn istifa etmesi, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve mali risk endi\u015felerini daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, beklenen yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8850 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 3 ayl\u0131k EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Daha muhafazak\u00e2r bir strateji ise, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken 0,90 hedefimize do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015ften yine de kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bir bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019inin (bull call spread) uygulanmas\u0131 olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir riskle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2016 Brexit referandumu sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve siyasi belirsizlik EUR\/GBP\u2019nin birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde 0,76\u2019dan 0,88\u2019in \u00fczerine h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. Tarih, bu fakt\u00f6rler ayn\u0131 anda devreye girdi\u011finde s\u00f6z konusu paritedeki hareketin h\u0131zl\u0131 ve belirgin olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut kurulumun benzer bir dinamik sundu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nomura\u2019dan EUR\/GBP hamlesi: ECB\u2019nin BoE\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin duru\u015fu, daralan 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131 ve UK siyasi-mali riskleriyle paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 0,90\u2019a t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48703"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48703\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}