EUR\/USD, 1,1500 civar\u0131ndaki iki ayl\u0131k diplerden tepki vermesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 sildi ve 1,1575 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yataya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Fiyat hareketi, \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k band\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine ta\u015fmakta zorlan\u0131rken 1,1580\u20131,1590 b\u00f6lgesi tavan i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde ilerleme kaydedildi\u011fine dair haberlerle piyasa tonu orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yap\u0131c\u0131 kald\u0131; Donald Trump nihai bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde imzalanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken Tahran ise hen\u00fcz bir karar al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
ECB Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri 0,25 puan art\u0131rarak neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve enflasyon projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcncelledi. ABD\u2019de \u00dcFE verileri karma\u015f\u0131k seyretti: man\u015fet \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydederken \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE %4,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD 1,1574\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken RSI 50\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda, MACD ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif b\u00f6lgede; 1,1580\u20131,1590 \u00fczerindeki bir k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,1645 ve 1,1685 hedeflerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Destekler 1,1555 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1500\u2019de; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1445 civar\u0131 ek referans seviye olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi\u011fini ve 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. EUR\/USD paritesi 1,0900 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ivme bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Bu b\u00f6lge y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir destekti ve \u015fimdi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Genel olarak olumlu risk i\u015ftah\u0131, AB ile Mercosur blo\u011fu aras\u0131ndaki ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinde ilerleme haberlerinin etkisiyle Euro\u2019nun daha fazla gerilemesini \u015fimdilik engelliyor. Bu geli\u015fme para birimine taban olu\u015ftursa da anlaml\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 beslemeye yetmiyor. Piyasa, bu unsuru di\u011fer, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makroekonomik etkenlerle birlikte tart\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fimdilik s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc muhtemelen tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019si %2,1 ile ECB hedefin\u0259 olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n geldi. Bu durum, ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015ftah\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek Euro\u2019nun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeline tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de ise ekonomik tablo daha farkl\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131 destekliyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin en son istihdam raporu, beklentileri belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015fan 250 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu kadar sa\u011flam bir emek piyasas\u0131 verisi, Fed\u2019e faizlerde \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumak i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla, piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde prim satarak f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019lerini (bear call spread) 1,0950 seviyesinin \u00fczerine yerle\u015ftirilecek k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu kilit direncin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde getiri sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Geri \u00e7ekilmeler, 1,0780 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde al\u0131c\u0131 buluyor ve y\u0131ll\u0131k diplerin \u015fimdilik g\u00fcvenli mesafede kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek, olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131r\u0131z. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, pozisyonlar\u0131 hedge etmek veya yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyon yapmak i\u00e7in bir yol sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD iki ayl\u0131k dipten toparlansa da 1,1580-1,1590 direncinde solukland\u0131: ECB\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerle \u015fahin kal\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,1645\/1,1685, destek 1,1555-1,1500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}