Hindistan rupisi cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, USD\/INR, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Cenevre\u2019de bir Mutabakat Zapt\u0131 (MoU) imzalayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,12 seviyesine geriledi. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6\u011fleden sonraki seans\u0131nda, 18 Haziran vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %3,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.020 seviyesine inerek yedi haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en zay\u0131f d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu da petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ekonomiler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bloomberg\u2019in haberine g\u00f6re iki \u00fclke, gelecek hafta yap\u0131lacak G7 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fmaya do\u011fru ilerliyor. Hindistan hisse senetleri y\u00fckseldi; Nifty 50 yakla\u015f\u0131k 23.623\u2019te %2 art\u0131\u015fla kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. <\/p>\n
Bloomberg ayr\u0131ca, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n beklenenden daha geni\u015f bir mali a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmakta oldu\u011funu; yetkililerin, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda belirlenen %4,3 hedefin\u0259 k\u0131yasla a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin %4,8\u2019ine kadar (0,5 puan) geni\u015flemesine izin vermeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu, ancak resmi bir do\u011frulama bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Enflasyon ivmelendi; May\u0131s T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,93 ile Nisan\u2019daki %3,48\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak %4\u2019l\u00fck tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), hazirandaki her i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde net sat\u0131c\u0131 olurken 64.641,43 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Teknik olarak spot kur, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,41\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; diren\u00e7 95,96 civar\u0131nda, RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 47 seviyesinde; destekler ise 94,79 ve ard\u0131ndan 94,03 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran olas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Hindistan rupisinin daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in net bir yol g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 18 Haziran vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi ve piyasa H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum rupi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destekleyici unsur. USD\/INR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuyor, ilk hedef olarak 94,79 civar\u0131ndaki ilk destek seviyesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/INR put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak da, rupide beklenen de\u011ferlenmeye kat\u0131l\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir strateji.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; g\u00fcncel veriler \u00fclkenin ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nem gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi periyotlar, do\u011frudan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rupi ve daha iyi makroekonomik istikrara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu temel ger\u00e7eklik, d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dayanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda Nifty 50\u2019nin %2\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir para biriminin besleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir rallinin sadece ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131. Nifty 50 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131yor ve havayolu, boya ve lojistik \u015firketleri gibi ana faydalan\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Bu olumlu hava, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar geni\u015flemesine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n
FII\u2019lar\u0131n son net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 art\u0131k bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130yile\u015fen ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetiklemesi ve yabanc\u0131 sermayenin Hindistan hisselerine anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yeniden akmas\u0131 muhtemel. Daha az \u00f6nemli haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda bile FI\u0130\u2019lar\u0131n tek bir ayda piyasaya milyarlar ak\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu geli\u015fme \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun %3,93 ile %4 tahmininin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (RBI) kayda de\u011fer bir rahatl\u0131k sa\u011flayacak. \u0130thal enflasyon riski belirgin \u015fekilde azal\u0131rken, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde olas\u0131 faiz indirimleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu da Hindistan varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in iyimser senaryoyu daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 95,41 civar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ederek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimimizi peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu seviyeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. 94,79 destek b\u00f6lgesinin kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, May\u0131s ay\u0131 dibi olan 94,03\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi s\u00fcrprizle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: ABD-\u0130ran MoU beklentisi petrol\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6kertti, USD\/INR 95,12\u2019ye indi. Nifty %2 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. T\u00dcFE %3,93. FII\u2019lar sat\u0131\u015fta. Teknikte 95,41 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131, hedef 94,79\/94,03.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48699\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}