Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) mevduat faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; bu, 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olurken, Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n e\u015flik eden mesajlar\u0131 \u015fahin tondayd\u0131. ECB ayr\u0131ca enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize ederek man\u015fet enflasyonun 2026\u2019da ortalama %3,0 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6nceki %2,6) \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ise 2028\u2019e kadar %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ve %2,2\u2019lik bir seviyeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n Avrupa ekonomisi ekibi, ECB\u2019ninkinden daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 tahminlere dayanarak Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yacak ek bir ad\u0131m \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca faizlerin %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn %2,25\u2019te sona ermesine k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bankan\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesinde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere de ayr\u0131 bir piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 olarak at\u0131fta bulunuldu.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 11 Haziran 2026\u2019da faizi %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde net bir \u015fahin patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ECB\u2019nin kendi projeksiyonlar\u0131 art\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun 2028\u2019e kadar %2\u2019lik hedefin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da piyasalar\u0131n, daha \u00f6nce beklenenden daha y\u00fcksek bir nihai faiz oran\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, en az\u0131ndan Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS) halihaz\u0131rda o tarihe kadar faizin %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Eurostat\u2019\u0131n May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) tahmininde man\u015fet enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,1\u2019de kalmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Euro\u2019yu desteklemesi beklenebilir; bu nedenle al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden uzun EUR\/USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 2022-2023\u2019teki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde Euro, daha az agresif merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin ralli ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca benzer, ancak daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir desenin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda, daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri olumsuz bir unsur olu\u015fturuyor; bu da Euro Stoxx 50 gibi endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (protective put) makul bir strateji haline getiriyor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile Almanya\u2019n\u0131n sanayi \u00fcretiminde son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,2\u2019lik daralma gibi daha zay\u0131f verilerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131nmas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bekledi\u011fimiz bu t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131 i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in VSTOXX vadeli i\u015flemleri ve opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir ara\u00e7 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB 2023\u2019ten beri ilk kez faizi 25 bp art\u0131r\u0131p %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken Lagarde \u015fahinle\u015fti; enflasyon tahminleri yukar\u0131 revize. Piyasa Eyl\u00fclde %2,50, Euro g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; hisseye koruma \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48694\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}