BNY\u2019nin Bob Savage\u2019i, ABD hisselerini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in iFlow verilerini kullan\u0131yor; kurumsal nakit bakiyelerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe, y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemelere ve SpaceX gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck halka arzlar dahil yo\u011fun yeni hisse ihrac\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Savage, iFlow kurumsal nakit varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n Covid\u2019den bu yana S&P 500\u2019\u00fc daha yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck hisse senedi volatilitesi okunurken nakitteki d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131n\u0131n, zirveden dibe hareketten daha \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu savunuyor. Nakit varl\u0131klar\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131na yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, 3\u00c7 ve 2Y\u2019ye fiyatlanan hisse riskinin enflasyonun kendisinden ziyade politika beklentileri taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirildi\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor.<\/p>\n
Nakitteki son geri \u00e7ekilme, Covid d\u00f6nemi ya da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali s\u0131ras\u0131ndakinden daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; \u00f6nceki zirvelerin ise genellikle hisse e\u011filimlerinde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere i\u015faret etti\u011fi, \u201cKurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc\u201dn\u00fcn istisna olarak an\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Nakit taraf\u0131nda \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d (buy-the-dip) anlat\u0131s\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 bask\u0131n. Savage, endeksin nakit varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferleme kaynakl\u0131 temkinlilikle ili\u015fkilendiriyor; daha y\u00fcksek CAPE\u2019nin genel olarak daha y\u00fcksek nakit varl\u0131klar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi\u011fini, bunun da k\u0131smen beklenen ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesinde savunmac\u0131 konumlanmadan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. \u0130hra\u00e7 taraf\u0131nda ise mega \u00f6l\u00e7ekli halka arzlar\u0131n tipik olarak piyasa zirvesini i\u015faretlemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; son 50 y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fck IPO\u2019lar\u0131n %20\u2019si bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesinden \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Zamanlama ve nakdin, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerle neden-sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi kurmaktan ziyade e\u015fzamanl\u0131 seyretti\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Kurumsal nakit varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n son zirvelerinden gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu dinamik, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hisse trendlerinde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur. Nakit seviyeleri 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamaya yak\u0131n ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da, bu de\u011fi\u015fim bask\u0131n \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d psikolojisinin s\u0131nand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ak\u0131m\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekir; geri \u00e7ekilmenin s\u00fcrmesi, piyasada artan inan\u00e7 ya da tersinden, kenarda bekleyen nakdin azalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Temel kayg\u0131, y\u00fckselen hisse endeksleri ile bu temkinli nakit kullan\u0131m\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemeler nedeniyle tedirgin oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Shiller F\/K oran\u0131 (CAPE) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 32 civar\u0131nda ve tarihsel ortalamas\u0131 olan 17\u2019nin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde; bu nedenle temkinlilik anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, VIX 14 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrederken, ana endekslerde put opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan IPO\u2019lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek say\u0131s\u0131 bir di\u011fer unsur; ancak bunu g\u00fcvenilir bir piyasa zirvesi sinyali olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, son 50 y\u0131ldaki mega IPO\u2019lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %20\u2019si b\u00fcy\u00fck bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesinden \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu nedenle bu t\u00fcr i\u015flemleri, geni\u015f piyasa i\u00e7in kesin bir \u201cay\u0131\u201d gerek\u00e7esinden ziyade k\u0131sa vadeli likidite \u00fczerinde potansiyel bir drenaj olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yaln\u0131zca enflasyon verisi de\u011fil, merkez bankas\u0131 politika beklentileri belirleyecek. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE raporu man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,9\u2019a geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de, \u00e7ekirdek hizmetlerdeki kat\u0131l\u0131k Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en k\u00e2rl\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin, kritik makro veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve Fed ileti\u015fimi etraf\u0131ndaki volatiliteye g\u00f6re kurgulananlar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
iFlow uyar\u0131yor: Kurumsal nakit geriliyor, ABD hisselerinde y\u00fcksek de\u011ferleme ve yo\u011fun IPO arz\u0131 riskleri b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Savage\u2019a g\u00f6re kritik sinyal zirve-dip de\u011fil nakitteki d\u00f6n\u00fcm; y\u00f6n\u00fc Fed beklentileri belirliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}