ABD Dolar\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,60 civar\u0131nda, bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinin birka\u00e7 pip \u00fczerinde seyrederek haftay\u0131 %0,35 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu hareket, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn sald\u0131r\u0131 planlar\u0131n\u0131 iptal etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberleri takip etti. H\u00e2l\u00e2 Tahran\u2019\u0131n onay\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen \u00f6nerilen anla\u015fma, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirmesini engelleyecek ve k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilecek.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, nihai bir karar al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Baghaei belgenin incelemede oldu\u011funu ve \u201cdaha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar onaylanmaya yak\u0131n\u201d bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan DXY yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman talebini yans\u0131tm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Veri taraf\u0131nda ABD \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi: man\u015fet \u00dcFE May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek %6,4 beklentisini a\u015farken, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE %5,4 tahminine kar\u015f\u0131 %4,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Bu arada dolar, 2022\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmiyle toplam d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturarak FX piyasas\u0131nda bask\u0131n konumunu koruyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman priminin h\u0131zla eridi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ufukta olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 varken, dolar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ana gerek\u00e7esi ortadan kalk\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) mevcut 99,60 seviyesinden, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 97,50 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenen gerilemeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF (UUP) gibi dolar\u0131 izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, net tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir riskle zay\u0131flayan dolara do\u011frudan maruziyet sa\u011flar. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, bu hareketin zamanlamas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin son zirvelerinden keskin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemledik. Piyasa korkusunun g\u00f6stergesi olan Cboe Volatilite Endeksi (VIX), gerilimin zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 25\u2019in \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden 18\u2019in alt\u0131na geriledi. Hem d\u00fc\u015fen dolar hem de azalan volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in DXY \u00fczerinde paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri satman\u0131n cazip bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi verisi, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini azaltarak dolar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Vadeli piyasalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar art\u0131k Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran, yaln\u0131zca \u00fc\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Bu para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, dolar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek s\u00fctununu ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu do\u011frultuda, risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndan ve zay\u0131f dolardan fayda sa\u011flayan para birimlerinde\u2014\u00f6zellikle Euro\u2019da\u2014g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. EUR\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun pozisyonlar ba\u015flat\u0131yoruz. DXY\u2019nin 97,50\u2019ye gerilemesi tarihsel olarak EUR\/USD\u2019nin birka\u00e7 sent y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011finden, anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 potansiyel sunuyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da istikrara kavu\u015fturarak Fed\u2019in faizlerde \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d duru\u015funu daha da do\u011frulamal\u0131. Bu ortam tarihsel olarak emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimleri i\u00e7in elveri\u015flidir. Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu ikincil etkiye maruz kalmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bar\u0131\u015f man\u015feti dolar\u0131 vurdu: DXY 99,60\u2019ta, haftal\u0131k %0,35 ekside. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudu g\u00fcvenli liman primini eritirken, kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u00dcFE Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Optiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}