Commerzbank, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve yeniden alevlenen enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir toparlanmay\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131, yurt i\u00e7i b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise c\u0131l\u0131z kalmaya devam etmesi nedeniyle Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n (NZD) s\u00fcregelen r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar RBNZ\u2019den \u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak banka, her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da birer art\u0131\u015f daha az yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu da mevcut NZD seviyesinin s\u00f6z konusu faiz fark\u0131yla genel olarak uyumlu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve yak\u0131n vadede yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha ileri vadede Commerzbank, fiyatlaman\u0131n ima etti\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f yerine enflasyon beklentilerini \u00e7\u0131palamak i\u00e7in RBNZ\u2019nin iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; banka, bunun NZD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Banka, NZD\/USD\u2019nin 2027 sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru 0,55\u2019e kademeli gerileyece\u011fini, EUR\/NZD\u2019nin ise 2,20\u2019ye y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in gelecek y\u0131l faiz indirimine gitmesini bekliyor; bununla birlikte ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin dolar\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019daki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle birle\u015fen bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, politikalar\u0131n n\u00f6tr seviyeye d\u00f6nmesini engellemesi ve 2027\u2019ye kadar kiwi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n, durgun seyreden ekonomi nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yaln\u0131zca %0,2 oldu; bu da, daha agresif bir merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015funu destekleyemeyen, geriden gelen bir ekonomi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teyit ediyor. Piyasa bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor, ancak biz Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (RBNZ) yaln\u0131zca iki art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019ya ili\u015fkin bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi ABD ile belirgin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi, 215.000 yeni istihdama i\u015faret ederek beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131 ve ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu dinamik, Fed\u2019in gelecek y\u0131l faiz indirimlerine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekli tutmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Bu pozisyonlar, kiwi\u2019nin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen gerilemesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in vadesi \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay olan kontratlar\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kiwi\u2019nin euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da belirgin zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin tonda oldu; bu da euro lehine bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n birden fazla cephede zay\u0131flamas\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7apraz kurlara bakan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in EUR\/NZD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon almak veya al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Parite \u015fu anda 2,05 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve uzun vadeli hedefimiz olan 2,20\u2019ye do\u011fru bir patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hareketin ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi, Yeni Zelanda\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma gibi k\u00fcresel olumsuzluklar da kiwi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Bu gerilimler, bu ay Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131maya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Yeni Zelanda ekonomisi, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131na \u00f6zellikle hassas; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Commerzbank uyar\u0131yor: Kiwi\u2019ye f\u0131rt\u0131na dinmiyor. \u0130ran gerilimi ve enerji \u015foku enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fcklerken NZ b\u00fcy\u00fcme c\u0131l\u0131z. RBNZ\u2019de 2 art\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma; NZD\/USD 0,55, EUR\/NZD 2,20 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47911"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}