Hindistan rupisi 2026\u2019da dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131, portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 nedeniyle sert \u015fekilde de\u011fer kaybetti. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana INR yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 d\u00fc\u015ferken, May\u0131s\u2019ta 97,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda tarihi dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan USD\/INR yeniden geni\u015f bir 94,50\u201396,00 band\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bel ba\u011flamak yerine yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerini \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlarla INR\u2019yi desteklemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Politika taraf\u0131nda RBI, Haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131 oybirli\u011fiyle ald\u0131 ve \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d duru\u015funu korudu. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ve hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 risklerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkilerini de\u011ferlendiriyor; ancak risk dengesi daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015fa do\u011fru kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f, politika faizini %5,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 689 milyar dolar seviyesinde; bu, yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 ayl\u0131k ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama g\u00fcc\u00fcne denk. RBI m\u00fcdahalesi ve muhtemel sermaye giri\u015flerinin, yak\u0131n vadede para birimindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan rupisi, May\u0131s\u2019ta dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 97,00 civar\u0131nda tarihi dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra bir miktar istikrar buldu. Mevcut sakinli\u011fin ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni olarak RBI\u2019nin yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahalesini ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 689 milyar dolarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezervlerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/INR\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite, May\u0131s\u2019taki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131nda %8,5\u2019in \u00fczerinden daha istikrarl\u0131 %6,2 seviyesine gerileyerek bu yeni ortam\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin aktif varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/INR\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadede 94,50 ile 96,00 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da opsiyon volatilitesi satman\u0131n temkinli bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, beklenen band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, parite yatay seyrederken prim toplanmas\u0131na imkan verebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ici istikrara ra\u011fmen rupideki temel bask\u0131 devam ediyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde inatla kalmas\u0131 ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 107,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, risk dengesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 INR\u2019de ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131na do\u011fru e\u011fik. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6rne\u011fin 96,00 call al\u0131p 97,50 call satarak kurulan call spread\u2019ler ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle ifade edilip olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
RBI bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; ancak \u015fimdilik faizleri %5,25\u2019te tutuyor. Bu nedenle gelecek haftaki T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi verisi kritik; piyasalar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %7,9\u2019luk bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme bekliyor. Beklentiyi a\u015fan bir enflasyon verisi, RBI\u2019nin daha erken ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na neden olabilir ve USD\/INR kurunda k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da para birimini bask\u0131lamaya devam ediyor; bu, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir e\u011filim ve 2013\u2019teki \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d d\u00f6nemine benzer \u00f6zellikler ta\u015f\u0131yor. Yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015f haftad\u0131r Hindistan hisse senetlerinde net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunda; May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar toplam\u0131 4,2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle ithalat\u00e7\u0131lara, mevcut istikrardan yararlanarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara d\u00f6n\u00fck dolar y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini hedge etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi 2026\u2019da petrol \u015foku ve portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla %6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; May\u0131s\u2019ta 97\u2019ye yak\u0131n dipten 94,50\u201396 band\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. RBI 5,25\u2019te \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d, rezerv 689 milyar $. Volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48682\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}