Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 0,5850 seviyesinin alt\u0131na gerilerken, NZD\/USD paritesi Avrupa erken saatlerinde 0,5820 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verisi sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle h\u0131z kazand\u0131. ABD\u2019de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,7\u2019den %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,7 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 %1,1 oldu ve Kas\u0131m 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye i\u015faret etti. Piyasalar\u0131n dikkati, bir sonraki sinyal i\u00e7in Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda taraf\u0131nda ise Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) daha \u015fahin duru\u015fu k\u0131smi denge unsuru sa\u011flad\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Anna Breman, Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (OCR) daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha erken ve daha fazla art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enflasyon, zay\u0131flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Yeni Zelanda ile ticaret ortaklar\u0131 genelinde artan girdi maliyetlerine dikkat \u00e7ekti. RBNZ, orta vadede enflasyonu %1-%3 band\u0131nda ve %2 orta nokta \u00e7evresinde hedeflerken, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 2027\u2019nin ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD \u00dcFE verisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede NZD\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasalar\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019i fiyatlamas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n destekli kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 0,5780 destek seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefleyerek NZD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli (short-dated) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, RBNZ\u2019nin kendi \u015fahin duru\u015fu Kiwi dolar\u0131nda tam anlam\u0131yla bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyebilir. Nisan sonuna do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131klanan Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisi %4,5 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015f, RBNZ\u2019nin faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma hatta ilave art\u0131r\u0131ma gitme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Fed ile RBNZ aras\u0131ndaki bu politika gerilimi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilitenin artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda ekonomisi i\u00e7in para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilecek d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 r\u00fczgarlar\u0131 da hesaba katmak gerekiyor. \u00c7in\u2019in may\u0131s ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,2 artarak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. Ayr\u0131ca ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ihalesi %0,8\u2019lik m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da temel ihracat gelirlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru sunmayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f verilerin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti\u011fi bu ortam, volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli. Paritenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD momentumu ile RBNZ deste\u011fi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 halinde prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) bir al\u0131m (call) ve bir sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satarak strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapman\u0131n etkili olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, benzer dinamiklerin belirgin bir trend yerine uzun s\u00fcreli bant hareketlerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, paritenin 0,5750 civar\u0131nda taban bulmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn 0,5900 yak\u0131n\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak bir sonraki ABD enflasyon raporlar\u0131na ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan GSYH verisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi volatiliteyi yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: NZD\/USD 0,5820\u2019ye sarkt\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD \u00dcFE dolar\u0131 destekledi. RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Piyasalar Michigan g\u00fcveni, 0,5750\u20130,5900 band\u0131, opsiyon stratejilerine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47893,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48678\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}